The US has a new strategy for Ukraine

The United States has a new plan to help Ukraine defeat Russia but it relies heavily on Kyiv’s ability to hold out against Moscow’s forces for another year according to a report from the New York Times. 

Some in the US government believe Ukraine should adopt a build-and-hold strategy that would see Kyiv focus on holding onto the territory it still has while working to build up the country’s capacity to make its own advanced weapons.  

The report explained that the goal of the strategic shift would be for Ukraine to produce enough of a "credible threat" through the build-up of long-range drones and missiles that Moscow would pursue negotiations in 2025. 

Whether or not the new strategy is a policy that has been adopted by both Washington and Kyiv is difficult to say, but there have been some signs that Ukraine is working to ramp up its production of the two key weapon systems.  

During Volodymyr Zelensky’s year-end press conference, the Ukrainian President said that one million drones would be produced in the country in 2024. However, further details revealed that only 11,000 would be medium to long-ranged. 

"Regarding production, we will produce a million drones next year," Zelensky explained to journalists during the news conference according to Reuters. "We will make a million. We will do everything to make it so,” he continued. 

On December 20th, a separate Reuters report noted that Ukraine's Minister of Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshin disclosed that 1,000 of the new drones would be able to fly a distance of more than 600 miles (1,000 kilometers).  

All drone production facilities were ready according to Kamyshin. But drones aren't the only thing Kyiv is working on making. Ukrainian engineers also developed the country’s first domestic long-range missile in 2023, a fact revealed to the world in September by Zelensky in a Telegram post.

Ukrainian officials have also revealed that the country has been working on developing a long-range version of the country’s domestically produced Nepute missile according to Ukraine's Deputy Defense Minister Ivan Havrylyuk. 

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By President.gov.ua, CC BY 4.0

Business Insider’s Sinéad Baker reported on the comments made by Minister Havrylyuk while being interviewed by the Ukrainian military news website ArmyInform, adding that it was a Neptune that sank the Moskva in April 2022. 

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Unknown Author

Another interesting sign that Ukraine might be turning towards a build-and-hold strategy for the next twelve months of conflict can be found in the increasing cooperation between Kyiv and Washington on developing Ukraine's defense industry. 

On December 6th, the Biden administration released a fact sheet announcing new actions on the cooperation between the U.S. and Ukraine’s defense industrial base with a goal to advance “a robust and self-reliant” industrial base.

Advisors have been set up to work with Congress to increase Ukraine's interoperability with the U.S. and fight corruption while a specific “Ukraine Deal Team has” been set up to provide guidance on the country’s defense export needs. 

Technical data will also be exchanged in an effort to address the operational needs of the Ukrainians, including in the areas of air defense, repair and sustainment, as well as the production of critical munitions. 

Moreover, Ukraine was to be given information the country’s military engineers needed to begin the domestic production of FrakenSAMs, advanced hybrid air defense systems that integrate Western munitions with old Soviet technology. 

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Stanislav Kozlovskiy

“These initial deliverables will not only expand U.S.-Ukraine cooperation and provide Ukraine with the capabilities it needs to be successful on the battlefield in the short-term but will support Ukraine’s long-term economic recovery and defense.” the White House fact sheet read. 

Whether or not all the evidence taken together is proof that Ukraine is seeking to move towards a build and hold strategy has yet to be seen, but it is clear Kyiv is moving more towards boosting its own domestic defense industrial base.