Are we teetering on the edge of World War III?

What will happen if Ukraine loses the war?
Tensions are high
Meet Hans Kristensen
One small but catastrophic incident
Somewhere in Armavir
Blind spots over Crimea
Escalation...
Retaliation
The view from Moscow
Following Washington's orders?
Satan-II
Is peace still a possibility?
What will happen if Ukraine loses the war?

The situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate, amid increasing concerns and uncertainties about the future. As tensions escalate, questions arise about the potential consequences of a Ukrainian defeat to Russia, including the possibility of a broader global conflict.

Tensions are high

While Albert Einstein predicted that the specifics of World War III were uncertain, he foresaw that World War IV would be fought with sticks and stones. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has heightened expert fears that we might be on the verge of this future global struggle.

Meet Hans Kristensen

Hans Kristensen is a name not many people know. He’s the head of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. His main responsibility, in a few words, is to ensure that the US government informs people about their policy on the use of nuclear weapons.

One small but catastrophic incident

Over X (formerly Twitter), Kristensen revealed a small but catastrophic incident during the Russian invasion of Ukraine could accidentally trigger a nuclear war between Moscow and the Western nations.

Somewhere in Armavir

According to Kristensen, a (presumably Ukrainian) drone attack on a Russian early warning radar facility in Armavir, in the southeast of the country, limiting Moscow’s capabilities to detect incoming nuclear attacks and disregard false positives.

Image: nukestrat / X

Blind spots over Crimea

Military news website The War Zone explains that the Armavir radar station probably covered the area facing the Black Sea and the Crimean Peninsula, opening speculation in the Kremlin about Ukraine’s next target.

Escalation...

Not only that, but by compromising Russia’s early warning system, it raises the alarm at the Kremlin about a possible escalation on the use of nuclear weapons in the battlefield.

Retaliation

It also raises the question of a possible retaliation from Moscow. Maybe against radar facilities in Ukraine or even countries that are members of NATO, or some other direct actions.

The view from Moscow

Kristensen isn’t alone in his concern. British newspaper The Daily Mirror quotes former Russian Space Agency and current senator Dmitry Rogozin, who believes a nuclear conflict could be imminent following the radar station attack.

Following Washington's orders?

Rogozin claimed, without evidence, that the US government had previous knowledge of the attack, if it didn’t order the attack itself.

Satan-II

As head of Russia’s equivalent of the NASA, Rogozin had a hand developing RS-18 Sarmat, also known as Satan-II, Russia’s latest intercontinental ballistic missile.

Is peace still a possibility?

According to The Daily Mirror, the Armavir radar station is one of the ten that exist all over Russia, and it might take over 18 months to repair. But how long will it take to repair peace and reestablish trust between Russia and the West?

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