Trudeau faces major leadership test as a key byelection looms

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is in trouble. Recent polling has shown that the former darling of Canada is sinking under the weight of his recent unpopularity and his political future could be in trouble.

Polling results published by Abacus Data on August 21st revealed that Trudeau was still quite unpopular as the country hit the end of summer with 24% of those surveyed noting they had a positive view of Trudeau compared to 59% who had a negative view of him. 

The Prime Minister’s positivity ranking was down by one point among respondents while his negativity ranking was up by a single point. These totals place Trudeau at an uneasy net score of -35, which may be why some have started calling for his resignation. 

Trudeau is more unpopular than ever and calls for a change in strategy or a change in leadership have been growing for months. However, the Prime Minister’s biggest test could come during a key Montreal byelection on September 16th.  

The federal byelection in Salle—Émard—Verdun will be a “major test for the Liberals” as Gareth Madoc-Jones and Kelsey Patterson of CityNews pointed out since the riding has been a Liberal stronghold since the party reclaimed it back in 2015. 

“If the Liberals lose, it will be a major blow for them and for the prime minister,” Director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada Daniel Béland told CityNews about what the byelection mean for Trudeau. 

“A defeat here in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, I think will increase the pressure on Justin Trudeau to seriously think about this future,” Béland added, and recent polling showed that there is a good chance the riding will fall to another party. 

An opinion poll from Mainstreet Research conducted in July found that Liberal popularity in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun has fallen. 29% of voters in the riding support the Liberals whereas 22% support the Bloc Québécois and 19% the New Democratic Party (NDP). 

Part of the problem with losing LaSalle—Émard—Verdun is that it would be the second major Liberal stronghold Trudeau and his party would have lost in 2024 if voters put a different politician in power in the riding. 

In June, the Conservative Party surprised the nation when they snatched the Toronto-St. Paul’s riding away from the Liberals in a byelection that saw Trudeau lose a riding the Liberals had held for nearly three decades. 

“This was obviously not the result we wanted. But I want to be clear that I hear people’s concerns and frustrations,” Trudeau remarked in the wake of the major loss according to Global News. 

“These are not easy times, and it’s clear that I and my entire Liberal team have much more work to do to deliver tangible, real progress that Canadians across the country can see and feel,” Trudeau added. 

While hushed calls for Trudeau to step down from leadership made their way into news headlines, the Prime Minister reaffirmed his intention to stay on as leader of his party and the country. But the loss really was a major shock and blow to the party. 

“I don’t think that anybody realistically thought that the Liberals would actually lose,” the Public Affairs CEO of Ipsos Darrell Bricker told Global News. “This byelection really does raise, I would say, questions about [Trudeau’s] future with the Liberal Party.

How a second major loss will affect the Prime Minister is unknown, but political analyst Karim Boulos told CityNews that losing LaSalle—Émard—Verdun could turn into a confidence issue for Trudeau that may force him to step down. 

“If Mr. Trudeau loses this second byelection – remember he lost the one in Toronto – if he loses this second one, it becomes a question of confidence within his own caucus, within his own party,” Boulos explained. 

“And quite frankly, I think he’d have no choice but to step down as the future candidate for the Liberal Party in the next election,” Boulos added. But whether or not the Liberals can hold onto the riding with their candidate Laura Palestini will soon be seen. 

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