Canada's Conservatives could defeat the Liberals by a landslide in the next elections

Justin Trudeau has been Prime Minister of Canada since 2015. However, it seems that the writing is on the wall for Pierre Trudeau's son.

Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party and trailing Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party by a significant margin according to the latest polling. But what does this slide in polls mean for the Liberals and the next election?

Abacus Data’s latest monthly national polling has revealed that the Conservatives are continuing to hold a major lead over the Liberals when Canadians are asked who they would vote for in a hypothetical federal election.

The Conservative Party was found to be leading the Liberals by over 20 points in what a report by Abacus Data on its latest data called a “persistent trend.” The polling firm noted this was the 16th survey in a row in which the Conservatives led the Liberals.

“If an election were held today, 43% of committed voters would vote Conservative, while 23% would vote for the Liberals, 18% for the NDP, and 4% for the Greens,” the Abacus Data report noted, adding the Bloc Québécois held 30% of the vote share in Quebec.

The new survey data was consistent with findings from the previous data in July, with a few minor variations that included the NDP being down two points and the Conservative being up by one point. Conservatives also tightened their grasp on their regional leads. 

The Conservatives continued to lead all other federal political parties in every province and region in Canada except for Quebec, where they were found to be in a statistical tie with the Bloc Québécois for dominance.

“Outside Quebec, the Conservatives have a 25-point lead over the Liberals and are close to earning half of those who are committed to a political party at the moment,” reported Abacus Data. “The Liberals and the NDP are statistically tied outside Quebec.”

Even more concerning for Trudeau and the Liberals about the latest polling numbers is that the Conservatives appear to be leading among every single demographic group in the country, including the Liberal's key cohort of voters aged 18 to 29 by a 10-point lead (35% to 25%).

Previous data showed that there was little difference in vote intention between men and women when it comes to the Conservative Party, and the trend has continued. Men are slightly more likely to vote for the Liberals and women for the NDP.

“The size of the Conservative Party’s accessible voter pools has increased. Today the Conservative pool is 16-points larger than the Liberal one. 55% of Canadians say they are open to voting Conservative compared with 39% for the Liberals,” the report noted. 

Another big issue for Trudeau that was revealed by the new polling was that Poilievre’s positive impressions are on the rise with Canadians with 42% of people saying they had a positive impression of Poilievre compared to 35% who had a negative impression.

“The net score of +7 is close to the highest we have measured for the Conservative leader. Over the summer, Mr. Poilievre’s positive impressions have increased by 4 points.” the report explained. However, Trudeau did not fare as well in his score. 

Only 25% of survey respondents said they had a positive view of Trudeau, while 55% said they had a negative view of the Prime Minister, which put his net score at -33. The Prime Minister has had a negative view ranging between 57% and 59% since the year began.

The new polling data only really revealed that the desire for change among Canadians was still quite strong going into August according to Abacus Data, which found 84% of those surveyed want change with 53% believing there is a good alternative to the Liberals. 

“As August begins, the political opinion environment looks almost exactly as it was when summer started and even when the year started,” explained Abacus Data CEO David Coletto in the report. “There remains a deep and broad desire for change.”

Canadians remain focused on affordability issues and healthcare, and the Prime Minister trails the opposition leaders on net favorability by a wide margin,” Coletto added. “If we use this poll to assess who is winning and losing the summer so far, it’s clear the Conservatives are.”