Trump has a big problem if he wants to win back the White House

Donald Trump is running what appears to be an unstoppable campaign to recapture the White House in November 2024. Every single indicator shows the former president may even beat Joe Biden in their possible rematch. 

The latest polling from Ipsos and Reuters published January 25th revealed Trump has a 5-point lead over Biden but there is one major issue that could ruin the former president’s reelection chances: a criminal conviction in any one of his four state and federal indictments. 

“In poll after poll, lots of voters who shrug off Trump’s four indictments say they wouldn’t support him if he’s convicted of a felony,” wrote Vice’s Greg Walters, who added that it was these voters who could keep Trump from a second term.  

But what do we know about the former president’s predicament? Polling within the previous six months has shown how the opinions of American voters, and Republicans especially, formed around the issues of Trump’s charges. 

In August 2023, survey data from a separate Ipsos and Reuters poll found that as many as 45% of Republicans wouldn’t vote for Trump if he was convicted of a crime whereas 35% responded that they still would vote for him in 2024. 

When asked if they would vote for the former president if he were serving time in prison, 56% of Republicans said they wouldn’t, and only 28% said they still would. These figures have only become clear since they were published. 

September polling from Ipsos revealed that most Americans (57%) would not vote for Trump if he was convicted of a felony and 60% said they wouldn’t vote for the former president if he was serving time in prison. 

About one-third of respondents identified as Republicans, 29% of which said they would not cast their vote for Trump if he was convicted of a felony. That number grew to 35% if the former president was serving time in prison. 

“Around half of all Republicans say they would vote for Donald Trump in either scenario (52% and 49%, respectively), while about a third of Republicans (32%) say the criminal cases against Trump make them more likely to vote for him in 2024,” Ipsos wrote.

Polling in December 2023 from the New York Times and Sienna Polls found that 24% of Trump supporters wouldn’t even want Trump to be the Republican presidential nominee if he was found guilty in one of his four criminal cases.

The poll results from the New York Times might come as a surprise to some. But the former president does have some of the most die-hard supporters in the country. However, what may not come as a surprise is the finding that most Americans today still won’t vote for a felon. 

The most recent data on Trump’s conviction problems were published on January 26th by Gallup and showed that 66% of Americans would not vote for a candidate charged with a criminal felony while only 26% indicated that they would. 

All signs seem to show Trump could be in real trouble when it comes to his electability and the potential for a criminal conviction, which is why the question of whether or not Trump will be convicted on one of his 91 state and federal charges is important. 

What will ultimately happen over the next nine months is still unknown but much of the 2024 Presidential Election will likely be dominated by the question of Trump and the criminal charges that could dictate who wins in November. 

“Not since Eugene V. Debs campaigned from a prison cell more than a century ago has the United States experienced what might now happen,” wrote Maggie Astor of the New York Times in late December 2023. 

“A prominent candidate with a felony conviction running for president. And never before has that candidate been someone with a real chance of winning,” Astor added. Legally, Trump can run for office in 2024 if he is convicted of a felony. But judging by the polling, he may not win.