Critical voting bloc shifts: Trump's numbers take a hit in polls

The 2024 Presidential Election seems to be tightly contested between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. However, a recent survey from Marist National Poll highlights a significant issue plaguing one of these candidates.

Marists asked voters who they would support if the election were held in mid-April and the results showed that 51% of respondents noted that they would choose Biden while 48% reported that they would pick Trump. 

The poll results gave Biden a slight edge over the former president compared to results from similar polling from Marist earlier in April. The previous polling found 50% of voters would choose Biden and 48% Trump. 

However, while the race might seem neck-in-neck from the polling results, the data was able to show that the former president was suffering from a major loss in support from a key voting block he will need in November. 

The former president lost support among independent voters who have an unfavorable view of himself and Biden according to Marist, which reported Trump was now tied with Biden among independents at 49% support. 

Trump previously held a 7-percentage point lead over Biden with independents, leading Biden 52% to 45% but the biggest losses for the former president in Marist’s recent poll are among independents who hold unfavorable views of both candidates. 

Trump had a 15-percentage point lead over Biden with independent voters who held unfavorable views of both men at 54% for Trump and 38% for Biden. But that lead has dwindled into a slight for Biden. 

Marist’s most recent polling discovered that Biden now enjoys 50% support among the independent voters who have an unfavorable view of each man while Trump’s support is sitting at 48% with the voting block. 

“Trump has lost some ground among those who have an unfavorable view of both Biden and Trump,” Marist noted. “Among those who definitely plan to vote in November, Biden holds a six-percentage point lead.” Biden is also up 5 points in a multicandidate field. 

When presidential contenders Robert Kennedy, Jill Stein, and Cornel West are added to the field, Biden sneaks out a win over Trump with 43% of the vote while Trump’s support drops to 38%. Robert Kennedy takes 14% of the vote, which seems to hurt Trump more. 

"Despite some weak spots for Joe Biden among non-whites and younger voters, he continues to outperform his 2020 numbers among white voters," said Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. 

"Although it bears watching in the future, right now, a multicandidate field does not benefit Trump,” Miringoff added, which is an issue that could prove problematic in November if trends continue. 

Trump's support with independent voters drops even lower under a multicandidate field scenario according to Marist. The former president’s support lowered from 38% to 30% whereas Biden’s support increased from 33% to 34%. 

Newsweek’s Kate Plummer noted that independents are a crucial cluster of voters both candidates will need to court to win in November but added the former president might find it difficult since his support has slipped by 8 percentage points. 

The Marist poll also revealed some other interesting insights. For example, the 67% of poll respondents who said they plan to support the former president will do so because they are for him rather than against Biden. 32% are voting for Trump for that reason. 

When it comes to Biden’s supporters, only 55% are voting for the president because they believe in their candidate while 43% plan to support Biden because they want to oppose Trump. 

Both Biden and Trump continue to see “upside down favorable ratings” with 42% of Americans having a positive view of the president while 51% have an unfavorable view of him. Trump’s favorable rating is 40% whereas 53% of people see him unfavorably.