Ukraine begins rebuilding as the war rages on

Ukraine has been at war for nearly two years, and in all that time, Russia has destroyed countless settlements and homes. However, the Ukrianians have been slowly rebuilding in a fight that represents a different kind of frontline. 

The city of Trostianets in Sumy Oblast is just one of the many examples of a settlement that was torn apart by invading Russian forces. It was attacked shortly after the invasion was launched and fighting over the city dragged on for many weeks. 

Trostianets only sits roughly 20 miles or 32 kilometers from the border with Russia and it was hammered by both Ukrainian and Russian troops in a battle for control of the region according to a New York Times report on the battle. 

“The unrelenting violence from both Ukrainian and Russian forces fighting to retake and hold the town raged for weeks,” wrote Thomas Gibbons-Neff and Natalia Yermak. But it didn’t last long. The city was only occupied for a month. 

Ukrainian forces liberated the tiny spa town of roughly 20,000 people on March 26th but the damage to the city had already been done. The city’s roads were ruined and homes destroyed after only a few weeks of intense fighting. 

However, nearly two years after Trostianets was occupied by Russian troops, rebuilding efforts have begun as part of a pilot program that includes 5 other settlements as part of an effort to teach the skills Ukraine will need after the war.

"The state has never done a comprehensive reconstruction of settlements before," the head of Ukraine's Agency for Restoration and Infrastructure Development Mustafa Nayyem told Reuters. "We don't have that kind of experience."

The state is funding the reconstruction efforts as a means to help develop the skills that will be needed when the wider reconstruction of the country begins after the war is over. But Trostianets’ rebuild also represents something more. 

Mayor of Trostianets Yuriy Bova told Reuters that the country was running out of time to rebuild the small towns ruined by the invasion, and risked losing the return of millions of Ukrainians who fled in the face of Vladimir Putin’s attack. 

"We're fighting for every person who should return; for every child who needs to return and build their future here,” Bova said. "To walk around and see this every day, that will morally traumatize a person.”

"We need to restore everything,” Bova continued, adding that they needed to start with “cafes, libraries, factories, schools, hospitals.” The mayor of Trostianets might be right, but rebuilding Ukraine now would be tough to reconcile. 

Kyiv is still engaged in a life-or-death struggle with Moscow over the fate of the country and the cost to repair what’s been destroyed could end up ultimately affecting the needs of the war. But how much will it cost to rebuild the damaged country?

Estimates on the amount needed to rebuild Ukraine have varied but the most reliable of the figures likely comes from the World Bank, which calculated back in March 2023 that rebuilding costs over the next decade would reach $411 billion. 

“These are inconceivable numbers. Four hundred and eleven billion dollars is more than twice the size of Ukraine’s economy,” wrote Wired’s Peter Guest in July 2023, “It’s 100 times the annual budget of the United Nations.”

“It’s nearly two-thirds of the 2008 banking bailout in the US,” Guest continued before he added that it was also probably an underestimate and pointing out that the head of the European Investment Bank put the costs at roughly $1 trillion. 

The true costs of reconstruction might not be known until long after the rebuilding efforts have finished. But it is important that reconstruction starts now. Kyiv needs to develop the experience and Ukrainians places to which they can return.