Putin needs to rebuild the Russian military, but how long will it take?

According to the Ukrainian General Staff, as of August 19th, 2024, Russia had lost more 600,000 troops due to the war in Ukraine. To make matters worse, Putin's army has also suffered significant equipment losses.

As of August 26th, the open-source intelligence firm Oryx, which has been counting verifiable Russian and Ukrianian equipment losses since the war began using photo and video evidence, noted the Kremlin has lost at least 17,529 pieces of military equipment, and the number is likely higher.

The Russian military has suffered a lot since invading Ukraine, and while you might think that those losses have crippled its capabilities, one expert believes Moscow will probably be able to quickly rebuild its forces within the next few years.

While speaking at the Royal United Services Institute’s 2024 Land Warfare Conference in late July 2024, British Admiral Sir Tony Radakin revealed that the Russian Armed Forces could be back to its February 2022 strength in as little as five years. 

Radakin noted in his speech that Russia had lost 550,000 soldiers at that time, which confirmed the loss estimates that were being made by the Ukrainian General Staff in late July 2024, and he added it would take time to recoup those losses. 

It will take Putin “five years to reconstitute the Russian Army to where it was in February 2022” based on the United Kingdom’s assessments according to Radakin, and will take another “five years beyond that to rectify the weaknesses that the war has revealed."

“It is not complacent to point this out. It is the responsible thing to do,” Radakin went on to note, according to a transcript of his remarks published by the UK Ministry of Defence. “Our role as military leaders is to reassure the nation and stiffen its resolve.”

On July 23rd, the same day that Radakin addressed the attendees of the Land Warfare Conference, the Ukrainian General Staff estimated that Moscow had sustained 568,980 casualties since launching the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. 

Newsweek’s Ellie Cook reported on Radakin’s remarks and pointed out that casualties are “very difficult to pinpoint” and loss figures calculated by Ukraine and Russia should be treated with caution. However, Western estimates have provided validity to Kyiv’s claims.

The UK Ministry of Defence has been providing daily updates on the ongoing war and it has often covered the increasing casualty numbers Moscow has suffered in the conflict. In an update on July 12th, the ministry revealed a very worrying statistic. 

Not only did the average daily Russian losses in Ukraine reach 1,262 and 1,163 in May and June respectively, but Moscow also likely lost 70,000 troops killed or wounded over a 60-day period in the preceding two months. But what caused these huge losses?

According to the defence ministry’s update, its analysts believed the large rise in losses was the result of Russian battlefield tactics, an increase in offensive operations in new regions, and a lack of properly trained soldiers. 

“The uptick in losses reflects Russia's opening of the new front in the Kharkiv region, while maintaining the same rate of offensive operations along the [remainder] of the front,” the defence ministry update reads. 

“Although this new approach has increased the pressure on the frontline, an effective Ukrainian defence and a lack of Russian training reduces Russia's ability to exploit any tactical successes, despite attempting to stretch the frontline further,” the update added. 

The UK Defence Ministry also expected Russian losses to remain high, estimating the average daily losses would stay above 1,000 in the two months following its update as Russia continued “to try to overmatch Ukrainian positions with mass.”

“Russia is making tactical gains – towns and villages taken at huge cost,” Radakin said about the situation in Ukraine at the time before he revealed the number of casualties Moscow had suffered in the conflict. 

“They are also targeting our friends in Ukraine where it hurts most: in their energy sector, in their cities and even their hospitals. That is concerning. But overall, the situation remains dire for Putin,” Radikin added. 

On July 5th, The Economist reported that Russian casualties could be anywhere from 462,000 and 728,000 according to the news magazine calculations, which were based on data published by two independent Russian media groups.

The data from Meduza and Mediazona revealed that between 106,000 and 140,000 Russian soldiers had been killed in Ukraine as of June 21st based on their analysis of obituaries, inheritance records, and social media platforms. 

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