What will happen if Russia defeats Ukraine and its allies?

What will happen if Russia defeats Ukraine? It’s a simple question but one that does not have an easy answer, depending on who you ask. Some analysts believe it could lead to a wider war, while others have predicted something far worse. 

However, there are a few generally agreed upon outcomes. First, Moscow would almost certainly exact a terrible revenge on the Ukrainians under its control. This outcome isn’t speculation according to Simon Kuper of Financial Times. 

Kuper wrote in a December 2023 article that Russia has already inflicted its revenge on Ukraine and its people in the lands it captured in the early weeks of the war. Execution, torture, and mass deportations have all been documented. 

“Guerrilla attacks by Ukrainian partisans would trigger more Russian reprisals” and that would lead millions of Ukrainians to flee to Western countries permanently according to Kuper, which could then fuel far-right politics in some places. 

Nico Lange is a Senior Advisor at the Slovakian-based international security think tank GLOBSEC and he noted in a December 2023 breakdown on the outcomes that a Russian would turn Ukraine into a permanent trouble spot in Europe. 

“The Ukrainian Armed Forces would continue their fight against the Russian invaders, either regularly or as partisans, underground and with terrorist attacks,” tactics that the GLOBSEC advisor said would lead to more Russian reprisals. 

This is already something that’s being seen in the occupied territories. For example, in January 2024, two female saboteurs allegedly poisoned and killed 46 Russian soldiers in Crimea according to Business Insider. 

In addition to predicting the same outcome as the Financial Times’ Simon Kuper, Lange added that the high degree of militarization of Ukrainian society coupled with the mass exodus of people and loss of territory would breed extremism. 

It is not hard to see how such a troubled area could lead to more conflict and eventually draw in other powers, especially if Ukraine developed nuclear capabilities. But there are other major issues the world would face from a Russian victory. 

On a more global level, the world would be a more dangerous place if Russia defeated Ukraine for several reasons, the least of which would be a revival of nationalism in Russia according to The Institute for the Study of War (ISW). 

“A Russian victory in Ukraine is a nearly guaranteed path to another Putin or worse,” the ISW wrote. A Russia emboldened by victory would also likely seek to continue its policies of expansion at the expense of its neighbors in the future. 

This is an idea that Nico Lange would agree with since he also noted that a Russian win in Ukraine would boost nationalist sentiment in the country and neo-imperialism, which in turn would lead Russia to seek more territorial conquests. 

“Russia would plan new military attacks in the rush of victory against the backdrop of the experience that the collective West has nodded off in front of Russian nuclear weapons and Russian military power,” Lange wrote. But who would be targeted? 

Moldova, Georgia, and whatever remained of Ukraine would be likely targets for Russia according to Lange, who added that they were clear military targets just as much as the Baltic States would be in the event of a Russian victory in Ukraine. 

“In short, no one in Europe would be safe anymore,” Lange explained. “Humanitarian, economic, and military costs would rise rapidly, far more than the current shortfall of at least two percent of defense spending as a percentage of gross domestic product.”

A Russian victory in Ukraine would also embolden authoritarian regimes all around the world according to Foreign Policy’s Adrian Karatnycky, who is also a senior fellow at the Washington-based think tank the Atlantic Council. 

“The defeat of a Western-backed country would embolden Russia and other revisionist states to change other borders by force,” Karatnycky wrote, noting the effects of recent indecision has emboldened Venezuela to claim half of Guyana’s territory. 

“While there are no signs of an impending invasion, it would be naïve to think that other countries aren’t watching closely to see whether Russia’s land grab succeeds,” wrote Karatnycky, showing the ramifications of a Ukrainian loss are still largely unknown.