When will the Earth run out of gold?

Date of Expiry

The end of gold has a date: the year 2050. This is the approximation made by several scientists from the CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) and the CREAF-UAB (Centre for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications at the Autonomous University of Barcelona).

Gold and other rare minerals

Published in the journal Science Direct, the study confirms that the extraction of rare and scarce minerals (lithium, cobalt, nickel, etc.) has doubled in recent times.

Risks at all levels

In addition, this excessive activity could have serious "environmental, economic, social and geopolitical risks at a global level," according to the study.

The beginning of the end

The study dates this problem's origin to the beginning of the 20th century. At that time, 80% of the materials used by the human species came from biomass: wood, plants, rocks, food...

The price of development

However, from 1900 onwards, fossil fuels, construction materials, and industrial or metallic materials, among others, began to be used, which implies the search for materials beyond biomass.

Photo: Unsplash - Ivan Bandura

Biomass? No, thanks

Thus, according to the study, in 2005, the percentage of materials from biomass used by the human species had gone from 80 to 32%.

Depletion by 2050?

By 2050, this percentage will have been reduced to 20%, which implies that many of these materials will be depleted due to overexploitation.

Photo: Unsplash - Leonie Clough

Necessary elements for daily life

The construction of roads, train tracks, computers, smartphones, and sanitary products, among other things, implies the use of chemical elements that biomass does not offer.

Serious warning

Added to this scarcity of products is that these rare minerals, including gold, are located in very specific countries, hence the warning of the geopolitical problems that the diminishing gold quarry on the planet can generate.

Six countries control almost everything

China, the United States, Brazil, Vietnam, Russia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are the bulk of the countries called 'Rare Earths,' where more than 90% of these minerals are collected.

Photo: Unsplash - Jingming Pan

And China dominates

Around 40% of that amount belongs to China, which implies "conflict risk", as the study points out.

Not just gold

Along with gold, other elements such as antimony, a key mineral for metal alloys, could also disappear before the middle of the 21st century.

Photo: Unsplash - Felipelaquim

End of planned obsolescence

The solution proposed by the scientists in the study involves putting an end to planned obsolescence and excessive short-term consumerism.

Efficient development

According to the study, we need to develop new technologies that allow for a more efficient and profitable use of the scarce materials that remain.

Photo: Pexels - Tyler Lastovich

Recycle and reuse

This measure would imply the option of recycling many of these elements and reusing them in a widespread and efficient way.

Photo: Unsplash - Regularguy ETH

A depleted planet

In addition, it would give the planet time to recover its natural production of materials since its exploitation has long since exceeded the margin of material creation that the Earth has.

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