Putin's strategic ambitions: Which nations could be next after Ukraine?

What countries might Russia target after Ukraine? While it may seem premature to consider this since Moscow is still at war with Kyiv, there are numerous potential targets that could be next on Vladimir Putin's list.

Warnings Russia could be planning to launch a much larger conflict against the Western powers in the near future have been made by politicians from several countries with one recent claim noting it may only be years away. 

In January 2024, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned that a Russian attack was not likely at the moment, German experts believed that it could be possible within a five to eight-year period according to Politico. 

The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service took its warning of a future Russian attack on Europe one step further in a February 2024 report that saw the spy agency note Russia was preparing for long-term conflict with the West. 

Estonian Foreign Intelligence Chief Kaupo Rosin explained to reporters at the release of the report that a military attack in the short-term was “highly unlikely” but he claimed that Russia was preparing for conflict within the decade. 

"Russia has chosen a path which is a long-term confrontation,” Rosin said according to Reuters,” adding that the Kremlin is probably anticipating a possible conflict with NATO within the next decade." But who would Russia target?

In December 2023, Chief of the Belgian Armed Forces Belgian Michel Hofman warned the Baltic States—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—could be the Kremlin’s next targets according to Politico, and his assessment wasn’t wrong. 

All three Baltic States are former Soviet Republics and all three are cut off from the rest of their NATO allies and nearly surrounded by Russian and Russian-allied territory. Not to mention Moscow is already making questionable moves recently. 

On May 9th, Bloomberg News suggested that Putin’s next target could be the Baltic Sea and it was a rather prophetic prediction since just two weeks later Russia would move to change its border on the sea nicknamed, “NATO’s lake.”

France24 reported a draft proposal from the Russian Ministry of Defense sought to shift the country’s maritime borders with Lithuania and Finland, redefining coordinates that would have claimed areas of each country's territory as Russian.

The motives behind the move were unclear but the French news organization noted that the text of the proposed bill was published on the official Russian website of the Registry of Laws but was removed. Russia is also making moves against Estonia. 

On May 23rd, Russian border guards were photographed removing border demarcation buoys on the Narva River. BBC News reported that 24 of the 50 buoys marking the border between the two nations were removed according to Estonia officials. 

"This border incident is part of a broader pattern of provocative behavior and hybrid actions by Russia, including on its maritime and land borders in the Baltic Sea region," Josep Borrell, the European Union's foreign policy chief said in a statement.

Whether or not Russia would eventually attack the Baltic States in the same way that it attacked Ukraine is unlikely, however. All three states are NATO members and if they were attacked by Moscow, they could call their allies to their aid under NATO’s Article 5. 

Poland enjoys the same protections as the Baltic States but it has also been cited as a potential future target Russia could go after. The country is often used by Russians as a foil for which country could be attacked next. 

In January 2024, a Russian lawmaker and close Putin ally Aleksey Zhuravlyov said while making an appearance on Russian state-run television that Poland was next according to Newsweek, which also noted he mentioned Sweden and the Balkans. 

Sweden is an unlikely target now that it is also a member of NATO but the Balkans are home to Moldova, which is the most likely candidate for the next country that could see a Russian invasion considering its circumstances. 

In March 2024, the Wall Street Journal suggested Moldova could be Putin’s next target based on its troublesome pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria. Moldova isn’t a member of NATO but only time will tell if this country is next on Putin’s list. 

Despite the ongoing speculation regarding which country could be attacked next, Putin has dismissed the idea that Russia is planning to attack any other country as recently as March 2024 according to Politico. 

“This is complete nonsense — the possibility of an attack on some other countries, on Poland, the Baltic states, the Czechs are scared. It's just nonsense,” Putin said during a meeting with military pilots. 

Putin added that Russia had “no aggressive intentions toward these states" though only time will tell if Putin will hold true to his comments.

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