Why did Putin replace Shoigu as Defense Minister and was it a personal move?

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu would be replaced in his post and given what appeared to have been a promotion to Secretary of the Russian Security Council. But why? 

Shoigu is a long-time ally of Putin and has overseen the Russian Armed Forces since at least 2012, according to Politico, which, along with other news outlets, reported that Shoigu was set to be replaced by Andrei Belousov. 

Politico added that Belousov is an economist with no military experience. It is a decision that has left many wondering why Putin chose to replace Shoigu but the answer may be that Moscow is looking for a new direction. 

Belousov is a veteran economic advisor and his appointment to the new role of Defense Minister “is being interpreted as a sign that Putin is looking to switch gears” according to Politico. This is also clear from the signals coming out of Moscow. 

CNN reported Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov revealed during a press call that Belousov was selected for the position of Defense Minister because the country needed “innovation” and cited the military’s growing defense budget. 

“Today on the battlefield, the winner is the one who is more open to innovation,” Peskov stated. “Therefore, it is natural that at the current stage, the president decided that the Russian Ministry of Defense should be headed by a civilian.”

Peskov went on to add that Belousov was not only just a civilian but also someone who had “very successfully headed the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia,” and was a long-time aid to Putin on economic issues. 

However, according to Bloomberg News, the move could be less about innovation in the Russian military and more about increasing Putin’s control over military affairs as the war in Ukraine continues and following a corruption scandal in the ministry. 

Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov was detained in April and accused of taking bribes, a move the Reuters reported was unexpected and may have indicated some level of infighting in the Russian political system. 

Sergei Markov is a political consultant with close ties to the Kremlin and he explained to Bloomberg News that “Belousov is personally loyal to Putin and he’ll sort this all out… There have been too many personal interests.”

Another reason why Putin may have put an economist in charge of the Russian Ministry of Defense could have less to do with punishing Shoigu and more to do with the reality that the war has become the main driver of economics in Russia. 

“The shake-up is about consolidating the role of the military-industrial complex as the main locomotive of the economy,” explained Evgeny Suvorov, chief Russia economist at CentroCredit Bank, to Bloomberg News. 

If Suvorov’s comments are true then the appointment of a skilled economist that Putin trusts, and a man who has served as Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, makes a lot of sense and is a logical move that could pay dividends in the future. 

“The bigger argument coming out of Moscow right now is that Russia is moving toward a war economy,” Former US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper explained to CNN during an interview on May 12th. “They’re on a war footing.” 

Former Defense Minister Shoigu’s new position as Secretary of the Russian Security Council will still see him overseeing the country’s military-industrial complex according to Dmitry Peskov, who said as much in his recent press call.

“[Shoigu] is deeply immersed in this work, he knows very well the pace of production of military-industrial products at specific enterprises and often visits these enterprises,” the Kremlin Press Secretary explained to reporters. 

However, the move to shift Shoigu’s role in Russia may have been an attempt by “Putin to keep Shoigu on side, while bringing in someone who may be able to deal with the impact of corruption across the Russian Ministry of Defense," former British military intelligence colonel and NATO planner Philip Ingram told Politico.

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