We are closer than ever to a world-changing catastrophic war

In Lebanon Israeli airstrikes have been ongoing for multiple days, resulting in the loss of hundreds of lives. Israel is retaliating against Hezbollah, and there is global outcry to prevent further escalation that could lead to a war with dire consequences.

The world is holding its breath as it watches the escalation of war in one of the hotspots of the planet: first there was the Hamas attack and the Israeli response in Gaza and now Israel's attacks on Hezbollah on Lebanese soil. World leaders are warning that we could be opening the door to a historic conflict with very serious and global consequences.

Israel began its offensive against Hezbollah (a Lebanese Shiite militia with strong ties to Iran) with a surprising attack that blew up pagers and walkie-talkies belonging to leaders and militants of this guerrilla group. In recent days, Israeli bombings have reached southern Lebanon. Lebanese authorities speak of more than 600 people killed, including many civilians and children.

In a country that is routinely hit by Israeli strikes in response to Hezbollah's equally frequent attacks, things took a turn for the worse on September 24: thousands of people are fleeing Israeli bombs and analysts fear that Israel will launch a ground invasion. Pictured: the first refugees arriving in Beirut.

Various media outlets are reporting that Israel is amassing troops on Lebanon's southern border, which could indicate its intention to penetrate into the neighbouring country's territory. However, according to the BBC, a senior Israeli army officer categorically denied the possibility of an invasion and maintained that, for the moment, the air offensive will continue.

From the European Union, Josep Borrell, the top representative in international politics, warned that we could be on the verge of a "total war." And in The Times of Israel, a senior US official was quoted as speaking of "catastrophic consequences" if Israel and Lebanon really do go to war. (The image was captured during an Israeli attack on Beirut in 2014.)

The danger is that Iran will join the conflict, since Hezbollah is a militia closely linked to this powerful country, which is suspected of already having the capacity to manufacture nuclear weapons. In the picture, Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader.

The scenario that is emerging is a possible war that will spread throughout the Middle East, without ruling out that this could lead, for example, to terrorist attacks that could reach countries in Europe or the United States itself.

In any case, this escalation of war, combined with attitudes such as Russia's towards Ukraine, describe a world in which the rules and minimum consensus that were usually discussed at the United Nations have already been blown to smithereens.

And the United States, which has always been the world's policeman, is currently experiencing a lack of leadership, with the presidential election just around the corner and Joe Biden weakened and almost out of the game.

A possible Trump victory will not help much to stabilise the international scene either. In the Ukraine war, although he does not make it explicit, he seems inclined to let the United States ignore the problem. And in the Middle East, his discourse is 100% in support of Netanyahu's unlimited bellicose policy.

Once again, Lebanon, a country that has suffered successive conflicts and civil wars throughout its history, is in the midst of one of the biggest crises in the region. The image is of an Israeli bombing of Beirut in 2006.

What many analysts also point out is that Israel's reliance on revenge, causing a very high number of civilian casualties, could prove counterproductive in the medium term and exacerbate the conflict. Whatever the case, the world is watching with fear what is happening in that part of the planet where peace is so difficult to achieve.

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