Could Trump lose Florida? This is what the polls say

The withdrawal of Joe Biden from the 2024 election and the rise of Kamala Harris as the presumptive Democratic Party’s presidential nominee has upended the race and altered the polling numbers in a variety of important states.

Several key swing states appear to be back in play now that Harris tops the Democratic ticket. But what about the former swing state of Florida? Is there a possibility that Trump could lose this important state?

According to the Florida Department of State, the Sunshine State has 30 electoral votes through 2024, which makes it one of the most important states to win for any candidate, but the state has been thoroughly red for years now. 

“It had once been a key battleground state but has leaned more Republican in recent election cycles. Trump won 51.2 percent of the vote in 2020, for instance, compared to 47.9 percent for Joe Biden,” Newsweek’s Kate Plummer wrote about Florida. 

On July 4th, Newsweek reported that Trump was likely to beat Biden in Florida again when the two were still facing off against one another. At that time, data from polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a significant lead over Biden. 

The former president led Biden with 46.1% of the vote compared to the 36.2% of the vote that Biden held. However, the numbers have changed a lot since Biden dropped out of the race and Harris took over as the presumptive nominee. 

Polling from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research lab found Harris was sitting at 42% of the vote in the state, according to The Palm Beach Post, the first news outlet to report on the polling numbers from the university. 

Unfortunately for Harris supporters in the state, the poll also showed Trump increased his chances of winning the state. He holds a commanding 7-point lead, with 49% of the vote. However, this result was to be expected one pollster noted. 

“It's not a huge surprise to see Trump ahead in his home state of Florida, which he won by three points in 2020," the Director of the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Michael Binder told The Palm Beach Post in a statement. 

Binder added, however, that with Harris just joining the race for president, “enthusiasm amongst her supporters has livened up what was once thought to be an easy win for Trump in Florida." Yet the state is likely still in Trump’s hands. 

At the moment, it is difficult to tell where Florida stands since there is a lack of polling on how Harris shapes up against the former president, but Democrats in the state say that it is back in play now that Harris has taken over the ticket. 

"Look, here in Florida, we saw unprecedented actions from volunteers from across the entire state, in blue counties and in red counties,” Orlanda Congressman and member of Harris' national advisory board Maxwell Frost told The Palm Beach Post.

“People are excited to get out there and vote for the vice president to be the next President of the United States,” Frost added. Whether or not this is true has yet to be seen, but it looks like the Harris campaign is focusing its attention elsewhere. 

Axios reported on August 3rd that in the 2000 election, it was Florida that made the big difference but in 2024 it will be Pennsylvania and noted the state was being treated by both campaigns like the “Ohios and Floridas of old.”

Both the Trump and Harris campaigns are set to spend more than double their regular advertising budgets in Pennsylvania than they are in the other six states and Harris may tap Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro to be her running mate. 

Where the focus on Pennsylvania will leave Florida in the 2024 mix has yet to be seen, but if polls continue to show Harris improving the Democratic Party's chances in the state, it could prompt a shift in strategy for her campaign to focus more heavily on the state. 

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