New report finds Earth unprepared for catastrophic asteroid impact

Earth is not prepared to defend itself against a potential asteroid strike, even with over a decade of notice, according to new research from a coalition of U.S. government agencies.

In April 2024, NASA and several U.S. government agencies conducted a tabletop game exercise that gave the group a chance to plot their response to a future asteroid strike. This was the fifth of such exercises.  

Photo Credit: NASA/JHU-APL/Ed Whitman

The participants were notified that there was a 72% chance an asteroid would strike the Earth on a 14-year time horizon with a specific scenario playing out, and the findings of the exercise were very concerning. 

The exercise revealed the multiple uncertainties about the asteroid's potential impact as well as its consequences posed a serious challenge to participants and their response according to a report on the exercise from NASA. 

One of the most significant problems for participants was their skepticism over whether or not there would be the funding required to gather more information about the threat. 

“Sustaining the space mission, disaster preparedness, and communications efforts across a 14-year timeline would be challenging due to budget cycles, changes in political leadership, personnel, and ever-changing world events," the NASA report noted

The participants expressed a desire to know as much as possible about the forthcoming asteroid impact so that they could manage its risk and devise a way to stop the asteroid but this proved more difficult than they anticipated. 

Another interesting problem pointed out would be the misinformation and disinformation that would need to be dealt with under any potential future asteroid impact scenario. 

The biggest problem uncovered by the exercise was the revelation that space agencies weren’t ready to implement a plan to mitigate an asteroid impact, The Register reported. 

“Not only are we not sure if we have the capacity to launch the space mission, but we're also not sure about the process required to decide which one to launch,” The Register explained. 

The exercise also revealed that the "role of the UN-endorsed Space Mission Planning and Advisory Group in an asteroid impact threat scenario is not fully understood by all participants."

"The process for making decisions about space missions in an asteroid threat scenario remains unclear,” the NASA report on the Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise 5 report stated. 

“The methodology has not been adequately defined in the US or internationally,” the asteroid impact report continued, adding that several criteria have not been sufficiently codified.

Thanks to the exercise, the shortcomings of any potential response to an asteroid strike on Earth have been revealed and have provided the world with the opportunity to overcome the problems a future asteroid impact could pose.  

“The uncertainties in these initial conditions for the exercise allowed participants to consider a particularly challenging set of circumstances,” explained Lindley Johnson, planetary defense officer emeritus at NASA, according to a press release. 

 “A large asteroid impact is potentially the only natural disaster humanity has the technology to predict years in advance and take action to prevent,” Johnson added, 

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