Trump has a big problem when it comes to female voters

Donald Trump has a major problem when it comes to female voters and that might have a big impact on what happens to his future presidential ambitions. Let’s look at what we know about the problem the former president is facing. 

Trump’s history of misogyny both during and before his presidency has been documented in detail, so you should have a pretty good idea of why some female voters might not be keen on voting for the former president over Joe Biden. 

However, recent nationwide polling from Quinnipiac University of 1650 registered voters that was released on January 31st, 2024, showed that far more women are likely to pick Biden over Trump if the two go head-to-head again in 2024. 

More women reported that they would support Biden with 58% that the current president would be their choice in 2024 while Trump only had the support from 36% of women. This was a trend only increasing for Biden according to Politico. 

In December 2023, Quinnipiac University conducted the same polling, included in which was the same questioning about who women would prefer if it came to do Biden and the former President. Biden was still ahead, but not by much. 

Roughly 53% of women would vote for Biden over Trump in the December polling while the former president had 41% of support from women. The data would seem to suggest that the former president’s female voter issue is only growing. 

"The gender demographic tells a story to keep an eye on. Propelled by female voters in just the past few weeks, the head-to-head tie with Trump morphs into a modest lead for Biden," explained Quinnipiac University’s Polling Analyst Tim Mallory. 

The gender demographic story is certainly one that could play a major role in the South Carolina Republican Primary, a state primary where Nikki Haley isn’t favored to win but she is polling at 33.2% against Trump’s 63.6% according to FiveThirtyEight. 

However, what’s more interesting is the on-the-ground responses from female voters on what they think about Trump and why many of them are choosing to vote for Haley over the former president in South Carolina, which Bloomberg News explored. 

“With the two male candidates, it’s just so negative and nasty and we need something new, and bright, and uplifting,’’ Paula Bathke, a Nikki Haley supporter who previously voted for Trump, said. “It’s a long shot, I know. But you gotta stand up for what's right.”

Other women choosing to vote for Haley in South Carolina are choosing her because they just don’t believe in the half-truths that Trump is telling voters at a national level. “I hear things like ‘family first’ and he's none of those things,’’ one woman said. 

“He just says that stuff to his base, but it’s not who he is. He didn’t solve the border crisis. We have a better economy under Joe Biden… We knew he cheated on his wives. None of that to me shows he’s a godly Christian leader,” the unnamed woman added. 

One of the most interesting aspects of Bloomberg’s investigation into the women of the South Carolina Republican Party and how they were voting revealed that many are still staunch conservatives and Republicans, they just can’t vote for Trump.

“I really would prefer Donald Trump not be [the nominee] because I don’t think he will be elected,’’ explained Lucia Oswald of Charleston, who voted for Trump twice. “If he gets the nomination, it’ll be Biden.’’

How the burgeoning disapproval of conservative women will harm Trump in the general election is not yet known, but it is easy to see how losing core support among women in 2024 could prove to tip the scales of victory in Biden’s favor. 

In order for the former president to beat Biden in 2024, he needs to build a very broad coalition of voters, which would require winning over the country’s female voters if wants to win the key swing states he needs.