Russian casualty figures have declined but are set for massive growth

Russian casualty figures have declined for the second month in a row but they are likely only going to get worse according to a new report from the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence. 

On May 4th, the UK Ministry of Defence released a new update regarding the war in Ukraine that focused on the daily average casualty rate of Russian soldiers in April 2024. 

The report revealed that April saw a slight decrease in the number of soldiers killed and wounded in the war during that month, which the ministry noted “remained in the pattern of 2024.”

Russian casualties in March saw the number of soldiers killed and wounded drop to 913 per day for the month, which was down by 74 from the previous month's all-time high of 983 casualties per day. 

The increase in casualties in February reflected the Kremlin’s “commitment to mass and attritional warfare” an update from the ministry at the time explained, noting that the shift in startegy was effective. 

Although Russia was suffering a high loss of life, the resulting effect "increased the pressure on Ukraine's positions across the frontline” according to the war update. At that time Russia had lost over 355,000 personnel. 

The decrease in losses seen in March was likely the result of fewer attacks during that month following the capture of Avdiivka, which saw a period of “rest and refit” as well as a desire to “reduce death notifications during the Russian election.”

In April, Russia lost on average 899 soldiers a day, which was down another 14 troops, a factor that the UK Ministry of Defence reported was due to the continued “decrease in pace of offensive operations in Eastern Ukraine."

Moscow’s slowly declining casualty figures aren’t likely to last according to the latest war update from the defence ministry, however, which reported Russian casualties numbers will rise again.

Russian casualties are set to begin increasing over the next two months of the war as Moscow renews its offensive operations in eastern Ukraine using the same mass and attritional warfare tactics that worked in February. 

“It is likely that despite the extreme cost in life, Russia has fully adapted its military to attritional warfare which relies on mass over quality,” the UK Ministry of Defence update explained. 

“This reliance on mass will almost certainly continue for the duration of the Ukraine war and have long-lasting effects on Russia's future army,” the ministry update continued. 

As of May 4th, the UK Ministry of Defence assessed that a total of more than 465,000 Russian soldiers had been killed or wounded since Moscow ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. 

Russia is quickly approaching 500,000 casualties in the war and Ukriane’s General Staff reported on May 8th that Moscow had suffered 477,430 casualties since the beginning of the conflict. 

How high Russian casualties will reach if Moscow pushes a new offensive is unknown, but Newsweek’s Ellie Cook previously reported on the Kremlin's fluctuating casualty figures and noted offensives often push casualties higher. 

‘Casualty counts typically skyrocket during drawn-out battles, like during the Russian attacks on the Donetsk city of Bakhmut in early 2023 and when Russia launched its assault on the strategic eastern city of Avdiivka,” Cook wrote in an April 10th report. 

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