How close is the US to a second Civil War?

Could a second civil war actually happen?
Disunited States of America
Something both sides can agreen on...
A national divorce
Bullets Vs. All-Gender Bathrooms
Irreconcilable differences
Down in Dixie
Remakes are never a good idea
The California Republic
Calexit
Gaining popularity
They don't call it the golden state for nothing...
The former kingdom of Hawaii
The Last Frontier
Not quite there
Red Vs. Blue
Political violence
War never changes...
New tools, same goals
There's nothing civilized about a civil war
A day that will live in infamy...
Don't tread on me!
Never shooting first, or so they claim
Nothing lasts forever
Could a second civil war actually happen?
The first and only US Civil War was fought over 150 years ago, yet its consequences are still felt today. However, many are now concerned that the country may be spiraling toward another fratricidal conflict.
Disunited States of America

Many experts have been wondering if the current US climate of political polarization, government distrust, and social instability could lead to a full-on conflict where Americans would fight each other again.

Something both sides can agreen on...

Bruce Strokes writes for British-based think tank Chatham House that half of Republicans and 40% of Democrats believe that it’s likely that the United States will face a civil war within the next decade.

A national divorce

Meanwhile, NBC News highlights that some politicians, such as Republican Georgia Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, have called for a “national divorce” between red and blue states.

Bullets Vs. All-Gender Bathrooms

According to The Washington Post, a former Republican Iowa Representative posted on social media in 2019 a meme showing blue and red states fighting with the caption “One side has about 8 trillion bullets, while the other side doesn’t know which bathroom to use”. A few days later, he deleted the post.

Irreconcilable differences

“The emergent two Americas can also be seen across a range of divisive social issues that reflect deeper divisions than those that merely manifest themselves at the ballot box”, writes Strokes for Chatham House.

Down in Dixie

Strokes notices that many of the states that the eleven states that formed the Confederacy (Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia) then to consistently vote along the same lines in many social issues, including abortion and gun control.

Remakes are never a good idea

The social, economic, and cultural differences that historically defined the US South can still be seen today, opening the speculation that a Second Civil War would be fought again over the Mason-Dixon Line.

The California Republic

On the other side of the political spectrum, the idea of California or the whole US Pacific Coast seceding from Washington, D.C. has existed on the fringe for quite a few decades.

Image: dreikubik / Unsplash

Calexit

The website Investopedia explains that the idea of a “Calexit” has been gaining popularity since the election of Donald Trump in 2016, where 61% of the golden state voted for his rival, Hillary Clinton.

Gaining popularity

A 2017 poll by Reuters revealed that one out of three Californians supported the idea of seceding from the United States, 10% more than in 2014.

They don't call it the golden state for nothing...

If California became independent, Forbes points out that it would be the fifth economy of the world, bigger than the United Kingdom. The Republic of California would roughly have the population of Canada and be larger than Italy.

The former kingdom of Hawaii

Two other likely candidates are the last two states to join the union: First, there's Hawaii, which was an independent kingdom before being annexed by the United States after a coup in 1898.

The Last Frontier

Meanwhile, there's Alaska, which makes up roughly 20% of all the US territory. The state even managed to elect a governor from the Alaskan Independence Party in 1990!

Not quite there

Boston University History professor Nina Silber talked with BU Today how today’s political divisions in the United States doesn’t quite reflect the turmoil seen in the eve of the US Civil War.

Red Vs. Blue

“Geographic divide today is less clear-cut, less along solidly sectional lines”, argues Silber, pointing out that even in states that seem to be fully red or blue, such as Texas or California, there are enclaves of opposing political factions, making the map a wide spectrum of purple tones.

Image: claybanks / Unsplash

Political violence

“I can imagine a future in which we deal with even more incidents of, or plans for, political violence—and that’s definitely a disturbing development”, believes the Boston University historian.

War never changes...

They say that war never changes, its methods have evolved and adapted in the last 150 years. The use of the Civil War, as the template of an imaginary armed conflict in the United States, might be obsolete.

New tools, same goals

The truth is that current-day warfare such as Syria, Sudan, or Afghanistan usually are fought by guerrilla units with shifting front lines, as two or more factions fight over control.

There's nothing civilized about a civil war

This raises the question if militia groups in the United States, such as the Oathkeepers and the Proud Boys, would try something like the Capitol Riot but into a massive, nationwide level.

A day that will live in infamy...

Sam Jackson, a senior research fellow at the Center on Terrorism, Extremism, and Counterterrorism, tells political news website Politico that January 6 has been regarded as an embarrassment by many of these militia groups.

Don't tread on me!

Not all of these groups follow or agree with Trump, and many of them distrust American institutions, such as political parties.

Never shooting first, or so they claim

Jackson claims that most militia groups declare that they will never shoot first, but they will certainly shoot back. That or wait for the right moment to act, uncertain what that looks like.

Nothing lasts forever

When George Washington became the first US President, France had a king, Russia had a tsar, and China had an emperor. Now, only one stills stand, but for how long?

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