Crisis at Sea: Russia's navy faces unexpected blow

Reports indicate that Moscow is facing a new military challenge, which has likely led to the retraction of a key Russian naval asset from the Mediterranean Sea.

Russia has relied on its naval base in Syria as a means to project its bluewater power for years but the fall of Bashar al-Assad has presented a major problem for Moscow. 

The Kremlin’s naval presence in the Mediterranean has relied on access to a deepwater port in Tartus, Syria—which Russia has used since developing the naval base in 1971.  

The New York Times noted that Moscow has maintained “a nearly continuous presence” in Tartus since before the Soviet Union collapsed. It is Russia’s only Mediterranean port. 

Whether or not Russia will be allowed to continue to use its naval base at Tartus under the new regime in Syria has yet to be seen, but things aren’t looking good for Moscow. 

On January 3rd, Ukrainian intelligence claimed Russia was preparing to transfer military assets from its Tartus base to a port in Orda, Libya according to The Kyiv Independent. 

However, other reports suggest Moscow may be withdrawing one of its most important naval assets from the area for the foreseeable future: its conventional submarine fleet. 

"Russia has maintained an almost continuous conventional submarine deployment in the Mediterranean for around a decade,” Naval News explained in a recent report. 

Moscow established its Mediterranean Sea Task Force in 2013, which has seen one or more of its Kilo-class submarines deployed to the region on overlapping deployments. 

According to Naval News, the fall of Assad has likely brought with it a loss of Tartus, and as a result, Moscow has also lost the ability to maintain its conventional submarine fleet in the Mediterranean for any length of time. This isn’t just speculation, either. 

On January 2nd, the Improved Kilo Class submarine Novorossiysk (B-61), Russia’s only submarine in the Mediterranean Sea, reportedly sailed out of the region and left the area without a conventional Russian submarine presence. 

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Guy Pool/MOD, OGL v1.0

On January 5th, the Novorossiysk was seen off the coast of Portugal by the Portuguese Navy, along with other Russian ships, which was reported by NATO Maritime Command on social media. 

Photo Credit: X @NATO_MARCOM

“The Alliance is watching and we are vigilant! Recently, our NATO allies from the Portuguese Navy, NRP Álvares Cabral and NRP Setúbal, monitored the Russian submarine Novorossiysk and the Large Landing Ship (LLT) Alexander Shabalin as the ships passed through waters near Portugal,” NATO wrote on X. 

Photo Credit: X @NATO_MARCOM

Whether or not Russia’s submarine presence in the Mediterranean Sea is over forever has yet to be seen. Naval News noted no submarine has called to port in Tartus since December 3rd, but it conceded a nuclear-powered sub could still be active in the region. 

However, at present, Naval News assessed Russia likely doesn’t have a conventional submarine in the region, and noted that if a replacement was on the way, it was still in the North Sea region, leaving the Mediterranean with a Russian submarine presence. 

“In practice, Russian conventionally powered submarines spend most of their time in port, even on deployment. This makes a sustained presence in the Mediterranean untenable,” Naval News explained. 

The implications of Russia’s Mediterranean problem are clear, however. The loss of Tartus and the ability to sustain a submarine fleet in the Mediterranean will reduce the Kremlin’s influence in the region according to Naval News.  

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