The Liberals are on the rise again in Canada following Trudeau’s resignation

The Liberal Party is making a comeback with voters in Canada following the resignation of Justin Trudeau and the ascension of Donald Trump according to new polling data. 

Market research firm Ekos Politics found the Liberal Party has seen a significant shift in its support and attributed the party’s climbing poll numbers to Trudeau and Trump. 

For the first time since September 2022, the Liberals have seen their part of the federal vote share rise above the 30-point threshold. This was a remarkable shift in support. 

The Liberal Party sits at 31.5% of the federal vote share as of January 22nd according to Ekos Politics while the Conservative Party still leads the Liberals with 38.7%. 

The Liberal Party narrowed the Conservative Party’s lead to just 7%. This represents a significant shift since that lead was an overwhelming 25% in December 2024. 

“While the Conservatives would no doubt win the most seats if an election were held tomorrow, it is unlikely they would form a majority government.” Ekos Politics noted. 

The Liberal Party is enjoying a major renewal of support from Ontario. However, recent domestic and foreign political concerns have also played a role in the Liberal Party's revival. 

“The Conservative Party maintains a sizable lead in every province west of Ontario. Importantly, in Ontario, the Conservatives and Liberals are now newly in a statistical tie,” Ekos Politics explained. 

Ekos Politics cited three reasons why Liberal Party support is rising. First, it noted that Trudeau’s resignation as leader of the party and country played a role in the shift. 

Second, media coverage of the Liberal leadership race has accelerated the Liberal rise at the same time Donald Trump’s return to the White House is pushing national unity in Canada.

“The cavalcade of radical announcements from the freshly inaugurated Donald Trump has spurred a renewed sense of national identity, prompting Canadians to rally around their incumbent leaders in a show of solidarity,” Ekos Politics explained. 

Leading Liberal leadership hopefuls Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland are using the U.S. President’s statements to take hardline stances against the Trump administration. 

However, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has been “somewhat mute” on the topic according to Ekos Politics, which likely isn’t helping the party’s poll numbers. 

“Poilievre’s focus has been on the carbon tax and Mr. Trudeau, which may no longer be the salient issues. His framing of the election may need to pivot and the results so far are not working in the Conservative Party’s favor,” Ekos Politics noted. 

The New Democratic Party (NDP) under leader Jagmeet Singh saw its latest vote share drop to 14.2%. This was slightly down from December 2022. 

Ekos Politics noted that following the resignation of Chrystia Freeland from Trudeau’s cabinet in December 2024, the NDP “was in a statistical tie with the second-place Liberals.” However, “the party now finds itself trailing the Liberals by nearly 18 points.”

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