Another poll shows Ted Cruz is facing a tight race in Texas

On September 29th, a survey conducted by Public Policy Polling and commissioned by Clean and Prosperous America provided more proof that Texas Senator Ted Cruz could lose his senate seat to Democratic challenge Colin Allred in November. 

The poll surveyed 759 registered voters in Texas and found that Allred was closing in on  Cruz with 46% of the vote compared to Cruz’s 47%. That figure was within the poll’s 3.5 margin of error. But that wasn’t the only troubling poll published for Cruz. 

Cruz is one of the most disliked politicians in the United States and he could soon be out of a job if another recent poll on the one state-level senate race from The Morning Consult is to be believed. But before digging into that polling, let's take a quick look at why Cruz is so disliked. 

In April 2013, Foreign Policy magazine labeled Republican Texas Senator Ted Cruz the “Most Hated Man in the Senate” and views about this controversial politician really have not changed over the decade. 

Republican consultant Matt Dowd once said on MSNBC’s ‘Deadline White House’ back in 2022 that “to know Ted Cruz is to dislike Ted Cruz” according to a quote published by Advocate. “Every time I think he can't go lower he goes lower.”

“Cruz represents the Republican Party as good as anybody... he's willing to say or do anything including lying and deceiving,” Dowd continued, but this sentiment hasn’t been shared by the Texas electorate. 

Originally a Tea Party candidate, Cruz won a 2012 primary against Texas Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst in what The Washington Post called "the biggest upset of 2012" and "a true grassroots victory against very long odds."

Since taking office, Cruz has been the focus of ire from both the left and the right for his odd political views but his time in government may be coming to an end if several recent polls on his current senate race with his Democratic challenger Colin Allred are to be believed. 

Texas has always been a traditionally Republican state, but dislike for Cruz in the state may finally see him unseated by a Democratic opponent. According to one recent poll from Morning Consult, Cruz was one point behind Allred. 

Conducted between September 8th and the 18th, the recent polling from Morning Consult surveyed 2,716 likely voters and discovered that 45% favored Allred while 44% favored Cruz. However, the results were within the poll's +/-2 percentage point margin of error. 

"For the first time in this race, a new poll has us leading Ted Cruz by 1 point. I don't know about y'all but I'm fired up and ready to WIN! We've got 47 days, let's do this Texas," Allred wrote in a post on X about the Morning Consult poll. 

Previous polling from Morning Consult conducted between August 30th and September 8th found that Cruz was leading Allred by 5 points, 47% to 42%. However, the margin of error for that polling was not available. 

While Democrats shouldn’t get too excited just yet, there is other polling evidence that Cruz suggests the Texas Senator really could be in trouble. One poll from The Hill and Emerson College showed Cruz was only ahead of Allred by 4 points.

A four-point lead may seem like a lot, but a similar poll conducted from September 11th to the 17th in 2018—back when Beto O'Rourke challenged Ted Cruz’s senate seat—by Quinnipiac University found Cruz only led O’rouke by 9 points. 

Cruz would go on to win the election in 2018, but he did so with a rather tight margin for Texas, only beating O’Rourke by roughly 219,000 votes or by a meager 2.6 percentage points according to The Texas Tribune. 

“While Cruz had a strong showing across most of rural Texas, O'Rourke narrowed the margin by winning urban counties and coming within striking distance in some Texas suburbs,” The Texas Tribune’s Abby Livingston and Patrick Svitek reported. 

Whether or not Allred can beat Cruz and win a Texas Senate seat for the Democrats in November is still unknown. However, the race does appear to be very close according to some of the polling. Allred does seem to have a fighting chance and he may surprise the nation on election night. 

"The Texas Senate race is a tossup. It should have always been considered a tossup. That is not to say Cruz will lose, but the race should be looked at as anyone's game," the President and CEO of polling company The Bullfinch Group Brett Loyd told Newsweek. 

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