What would happen if the United States invades Greenland: a strange war scenario

Donald Trump believes that Greenland should be controlled by the United States. He has said this several times. At the moment, it does not seem that the American president is considering invading this frozen territory. But what if it were to happen? What military and geostrategic scenario would we be facing?

Greenland is a territory with broad powers of self-government (and aspirations for independence) but under the administrative control of Denmark, a country belonging to the European Union and, more importantly, to NATO. So, in the event of an invasion, the Danish authorities could invoke Article 5 of the NATO regulations, which obliges all its members to defend an ally that suffers an external attack.

The problem is that the United States is also a member of NATO, which would create an unusual crisis situation within the organization. Some experts believe that Article 5 cannot be invoked in a conflict between NATO members.

In an article published on the Brexit Institute website and signed by Federica Fazio, from the Faculty of Law and Government at Dublin City University, it is recalled that, for cases such as a hypothetical invasion of Greenland, the Mutual defence clause (Article 42.7 TEU) - of the European Parliament would be put into action, which guarantees military assistance from EU partners in the event of an attack.

Professor Fazio also points out the peculiarity of Greenland as an autonomous territory, although it depends on Denmark. In other words, it is not clear whether this invasion would be a 100% European Union territory and whether it would force the European partners to launch a defence of this enclave.

In reality, beyond the regulatory debate over NATO or EU rules, what would arise is an existential dilemma for powers such as France or Germany, whose trade and affinity ties with the United States are strong. An unprecedented rupture between Europe and the United States could occur.

But, in any case, what would a US invasion of Greenland look like in strictly military terms?

The military base in Thule, which is currently held by the United States, would be a strategic point for a possible invasion.

Thule serves as an airfield and could be used as a base of operations for deploying US troops to Greenland.

But the reality is that Greenland would present a hellish scenario in the event of a military invasion due to the extreme weather conditions and a territory that is difficult to encompass.

In an article by The Arctic Institute, they explain that Greenland covers "an area of 2,166,086 km2 and a coastline that is 'longer than the distance around the Earth at the equator', more than 43,000 kilometers."

In theory (and especially if Denmark were to get its EU or NATO allies to join it in the conflict) an invasion of Greenland would require a huge amount of resources from the United States. But some argue that the harsh reality is that Greenland is easy to take.

Ulrik Pram Gad, a senior fellow at the Danish Institute for International Studies, was asked about this by Politico. He replied that if Trump were to invade Greenland, "that would be the shortest war in the world, there is no defensive capacity in Greenland."

Politico's article on Greenland's defense capabilities casts doubt on whether the Danish military is up to the task of waging war with US forces.

But, again, it would all depend on whether major European powers such as Germany or France decided to get involved and send their troops to fight against the United States. And what's more, there is another major American power that would have a say in the conflict.

For Canada, due to its geographical proximity, Greenland is a strategic enclave. Would it accept the United States taking it over?

Some suspect that Trump's bragging about Greenland may have another purpose: to create a climate of opinion that will influence certain existing political currents in Greenland.

In Greenland, political parties that advocate separating from Denmark and forming an independent nation are very powerful. Perhaps these parties see the United States as an ally in their plans.

It's all speculation. The only thing that's certain is that Trump keeps repeating that he wants to take some kind of control over Greenland.

And the Greenland issue places the world in a situation never seen before: the possibility that NATO and the European Union will have to choose where they stand when it comes to a fight with the United States.

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