Which country will be Putin's next target?

Avril Haines, Director of the United States Intelligence Agency, forewarned that Russia's ongoing conflict will be protracted and likely impact other nations. According to Haines and several experts, Moldova appears next on the list of potential invasions by Russia.

Moldova is a country bordering Ukraine, also a former Soviet republic. The capital of Moldova is Chișinău (pictured here). It was part of Romania until 1940 and the link with the Romanian culture is very intense. But why would Russian want to invade this nation?

Image: Vitalie Sitnic/Unsplash

Putin's idea would be to open a corridor or corridor in Moldovan territory so that his army can reach Transnistria, a pro-Russian republic that broke away from Moldova in 1990 and that can serve as a supply point for Russian troops. Transtinia carries the hammer and sickle of the former USSR on its flag, in a display of proud nostalgia for the Soviet Empire.

This is how Moldova (a country of barely 12 million inhabitants) would be fatally involved in the war. It is an eminently agricultural country.

Image: Vlad Gregurco/Unsplash

Especially appreciated among winemakers are Moldovan wines. The Cricova area is world famous for its high-quality wine production.

Image: Calin Stan

Within the complexity of what was the former Soviet Union, it should be noted that in Moldova there is a large ethnic community called the Gagauz, with Turkish roots but they are Orthodox Christians faithful to the Patriarch of Moscow (the controversial Kirill) and, therefore, with deep pro-Russian sympathies. They are about 200,000 in the Gagauz community and, as can be seen in the image, they have their own flag.

Moldova has had a more or less placid existence (except in the early 1990s due to the Transnistrian conflict) and in this war it has limited itself to welcoming hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees, joining the solidarity work of many other countries.

Image: Vadim Russu/Unsplash

There is a political and social current that advocates a unification of Moldova with Romania (in fact, there is a region called Moldova within Romania) but the reality is that this process of returning to the essence has never been seriously considered. Moldova has preferred to preserve its independence even though its flag (in the image) is practically the same as the Romanian one.

The president of Moldova is Maia Sandu (pictured), an economist. She led a pro-European candidacy which could now be threatened by Russia.

Aspirations of joining the European Union are complicated in the former Soviet republics. Moldova has a significant percentage of the population in favor of joining the European Union (as in Ukraine), but Russia does not like the idea. At the moment, the Europeanist aspiration remains in murals like the one in the image and in a very strong commercial collaboration with Europe.

Another fact to take into account: Moldova has a meager armed forces. As an example, take the data offered by the organization GFP (Global Fire Power) on its air power: sixteen helicopters, four attack helicopters and a transport plane -that's nothing compared to the Russian military.

However, although the invasion of Moldova is considered very likely, Putin should think twice: extending the war to a second country could further strain Russia's relations with the world.

It remains to be seen what will be the reaction of the leaders and the people of Moldova in the face of an invasion. Beyond the obvious condemnation for violating its sovereignty, can there be a resistance against the invader comparable to the one that has put Russia in a tight spot in Ukraine?

In the case of Moldova, things are likely to be easier for Russia. It is not a country with a strong military and has always carefully balanced between its European roots and its years of coexistence with Russia within the Soviet Union.

Image: Dorin Semeret/Unsplash

However, as Ukraine has shown, the development of any war is unpredictable. Sometimes, even for a military power like Russia, it is not so easy to win quickly.

And then there is the suspicion of that Putin intends to return Russia to its imperial borders from the Soviet Union or tsarism, absorbing republics like Moldova. But that is another story.

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