These are the four ways that the conflict in Ukraine might end

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been going on for nearly three years and there are some signs that both Moscow and Kyiv could be looking for an off-ramp. However, how might this conflict end?

Ukraine is currently in the middle of crafting a victory plan that reporting from Bloomberg suggests includes an official invitation into NATO. This is one of many points that could be problematic for Russia.

In June 2024, Vladimir Putin outlined the terms Ukraine would need to meet in order to achieve peace, which included Kyiv giving up its dream of joining NATO before peace talks could start according to BBC News.

BBC News also reported that Volodymyr Zelensky has long said Russian forces would have to leave Ukraine before peace talks could start, and it's clear from recent developments that the two sides may not be ready to sit down and discuss a resolution to the conflict.

However, if the fighting in Ukraine can't be ended by negotiations at the moment, what are the ways? in which the conflict could be brought to a close? This is a question one American news outlet tried to answer in February 2024, and it outlined four possible ways the war could end.

Business Insider explored four ways in which the Russian invasion of Ukraine could be brought to an end based on a February 14th press briefing from experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Let’s look at the possibilities. 

Ukraine holding out is the scenario that most Western officials are hoping for and if the country can draw Russia into a long war that Moscow eventually loses. But such a scenario would be dependent on help. 

Ukraine is currently dependent on security and financial aid from the United States and its allies across the world. However, without help, it is likely that Kyiv won’t be able to hold off Russia's coming offensives in 2024. 

Max Bergmann of CSIS believed in February 2024 that if Ukraine continued to receive security and financial help from its partners, like the US $60 billion dollar package, which at the time working its way through Congress and later approved in April 2024, then Ukraine could hold out.

"If that funding is passed, I have no doubt that Ukraine will be able to completely absorb the Russian offensive that is going on in 2024," Bergmann said during the February 14th briefing. "In fact, I would be quite optimistic about Ukraine's potential in 2025."

A Russian victory is most likely what will happen if Ukraine's partners and allies are not willing to continue backing the country up financially and militarily. Anything is possible in a war of attrition according to Eliot A. Cohen. 

"In a war of attrition, lines can break if the attrited side is depleted enough. So I think that passing the assistance is really critical," Cohen explained But he also explained how a lack of help could lead to Russia’s victory. 

Cohen used World War I as an analogy to help his audience understand how quickly a state at war can collapse when fighting an attritional war. "Nobody expected the war to end in November 1918,” Cohen explained. 

“In September, even into early October, people [were] planning for the campaigns of 1919. And there was not just one collapse, but a set of collapses. I think something similar might happen in this case,” Cohen added. 

A peace deal is a hopeful possibility but it's one that isn’t likely to happen unless Russia or Ukraine relaxes their demands. In November 2023, Ukraine had put out a 10-point peace plan that included conditions Russia would not accept. 

For example, the Kyiv Post noted the peace plan's fifth point included a reversion to Ukraine's 1991 borders, a commitment Russia isn’t likely to adhere to unless it outright lost the war. Point seven also outlined war crimes tribunals to prosecute Russian war crimes.

In December 2023, Putin vowed at an end-of-year press conference there would be no peace until the “denazification” and demilitarization of Ukraine was secured. Kyiv would also need to be a neutral country according to The Hill’s Reporting. 

As of September 2024, it appears as if Moscow and Kyiv are not ready to make peace. The New York Times noted in June 2024 that there was "no clear path to military victory for either side" or " immediate prospects for a ceasefire and an eventual peace plan, with both sides sticking to irreconcilable positions."

The final way the conflict in Ukraine could end is nuclear war. Officials in Russia like Putin and Dmitry Medvedev have made several nuclear threats ever since the conflict began, and it is a possibility that needs to be considered. 

"What would that spell for Vladimir Putin's regime? I think the US has already communicated pretty forcefully that all bets are off if Russia were to use nuclear weapons," CSIS Senior Vice President Seth Jones explained. 

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