Peace in sight? Putin could propose concessions

Will the Russian President end the war on his terms?
Putin and Trump
Could Trump actually deliver peace?
Yielding ground
Swathes of conquered territory
Negligible impact of long-range missiles
A complex scenario
Anonymous sources
Carving up eastern Ukraine
Crimea off limits
Kharkiv and Mykolaiv
An alternative security to NATO
Putin ready to talk peace
Objections to a short-term ceasefire
Importance of neutrality
Will the Russian President end the war on his terms?

President-Elect Donald Trump will return to power in January 2025, and with his new term in office, many believe that the former New York real estate mogul will be able to end the conflict in Ukraine. But will Vladimir Putin negotiate?

Putin and Trump

Trump has previously promised to put an end to the war within the first 24 hours of retaking office and there have been some recent signs from Putin that Moscow might be willing to offer some concessions to achieve peace.

Could Trump actually deliver peace?

There are signs that Putin is moving towards a more conciliatory approach in discussions about a ceasefire with Ukraine. Reuters has exclusively obtained detailed insights into Putin's proposed agreement.

Yielding ground

While the broad brushstrokes of a non-negotiable ceasefire were outlined in June, stipulating that Ukraine would have to drop its ambition to join NATO and leave Russia with all its territorial gains, it has now emerged that concessions could be on the table.

 

Swathes of conquered territory

Russia currently controls 110,000 sq km of Ukrainian territory while Ukraine holds about 650 sq km of Russia’s Kursk region.

Negligible impact of long-range missiles

The recent use of long-range missiles fired into Russian territory is unlikely to alter the direction of the war, according to The Guardian’s defense and security editor, Dan Sabbagh.

 

A complex scenario

“From Ukraine’s perspective, it is better to have them than not, but ultimately, no single weapon type is decisive in a complex war like this,” Sabbagh said.

 

Anonymous sources

With President elect Donald Trump keen to put a swift end to the conflict, five anonymous sources close to the Kremlin have leaked some clues as to how negotiations could play out.

Carving up eastern Ukraine

From three of the sources, there is a suggestion that Putin might be willing to make some small compromises on how the four eastern regions of Ukraine predominantly under Russian control – Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson – could be carved up.

 

Crimea off limits

On the other hand, Crimea, which was annexed by Russia after they invaded in 2014, is not up for grabs, according to the sources.

 

Kharkiv and Mykolaiv

There is also a suggestion that Russia’s small gains in the Kharkiv and Mykolaiv regions, in the north and south of Ukraine, could be handed back to Ukraine.

An alternative security to NATO

Although Russia will not be swayed over its stance on Ukraine joining NATO, it is prepared to discuss security alternatives for Kyiv, according to Reuters sources.

 

Putin ready to talk peace

Putin has “more than once, or more precisely, constantly, stated that he is ready for contacts and negotiations,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said November 20, reports Moscow’s state-run TASS news service.

 

Objections to a short-term ceasefire

Earlier this month Putin indicated that a short-term ceasefire would only serve to give Ukraine time to rearm and that any deal would have to reflect the situation on the ground.

 

Importance of neutrality

"If there is no neutrality, it is difficult to imagine the existence of any good-neighbourly relations between Russia and Ukraine," Putin told a Moscow-based think tank, Reuters reports.

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