Canada braces for impact as US civil war looms

Political polarization in the United States has reached unprecedented levels, sparking international speculation about potential civil unrest. This growing concern has particularly resonated with neighboring countries, especially Canada. But is the Canadian government truly anxious about the prospect of an American civil war?

According to a piece published by Politico, the Canadian government is genuinely worried about what might happen after the November 2024 U.S. election and the very real possibility of civil war. It seems Canada has plans in place if the worst were to happen.

As reported by Politico, Justin Trudeau's government has been working together with the think tank Policy Horizons Canada to analyze this situation.

Policy Horizons Canada has conducted surveys with hundreds of government officials and experts about what kind of chaos may follow the 2024 U.S. presidential elections and concluded that Canada needs to be prepared for a U.S. civil war.

Politico reports that Policy Horizons Canada created a 37-page report released this spring titled "Disruptions on the Horizon," in which they stated Ottawa needs to be ready to deal with civil war in the south saying the possibility of "U.S. ideological divisions, democratic erosion, and domestic unrest escalate, plunging the country into civil war."

In the Policy Horizons Canada report, Politico says that while American civil war was listed as improbable, it also noted that it would be an "ultra-high-impact event."

Also included in the improbable category were: "the proliferation of homemade biological weapons; the rise of antibiotic-resistant pathogens, leading to mass death and food shortages; and the outbreak of World War 3."

Politico spoke to John McArthur, a Brookings Institution scholar who told the media outlet that the report reflects just how worried Justin Trudeau is about the state of politics in America.

McArthur, who stressed to Politico he was speaking for himself and not Policy Horizons, added that Trump's time in office not only damaged the relationship between Canada and the U.S. but also made Canadians very nervous.

McArthur told Politico's Alexander Burns, "Any sense of disruption to your closest sovereign relationship in the world, any disruption within that country, is a deep worry, I think, to any Canadian outlook. Canada's place in the world has become more complex terrain to navigate."

One of the aspects highlighted in the report was the urgent need for Canada to develop new technology to prepare for cyber attacks in the future, which could disable critical Canadian infrastructure or assist if emergency services become overwhelmed.

While the Policy Horizons report does not speculate on exactly how a U.S. civil war might break out, Politico writer Alexander Burns has a theory.

Burns writes that he believes a civil war in the U.S. this time around might look more similar to the 1960s Quebec separatism fight, with Burn adding, that the civil war scenario really comes down to "how one defines civil war."

During the 1960s Quebec separatism battle, Canada suffered through nearly ten years of robberies, kidnappings, and bombings performed by militants who were angered by how Canada's federal system had changed.

Burns points out that since the United States is such a "heavily armed country," it is not outrageous to think that a situation similar to what went down in Quebec back then could happen now in the U.S.

Burns added that no matter who wins the November 2024 election, there is a good chance that 50% of the population is going to be deeply angry about the outcome.

Canadians aren't the only ones worried about an American civil war; a recent poll by Rasmussen Reports showed that 41% of Americans were worried about civil conflict in the country.

And frankly, they are probably right to be worried, particularly since Trump and MAGA have shown the world all of the chaos they are capable of in the past.

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