Canada’s Liberals overtake the Conservatives in polling for the first time in years

Federal politics in Canada have been upended in recent weeks. The Liberal Party with Trudeau at the helm was destined for a historic collapse. However, the Liberals have made a stunning comeback in the polls according to recent data. 

According to the latest data from Ipsos, the Liberal Party is polling ahead of its primary rivals, the Conservative Party, for the first time in four years. The Liberals have a two-point lead over the Conservative Party, and that is quite astonishing. 

The Liberal Party captured 38% of the vote share in Ipsos' latest polling while the Conservative Party came in a close second with 36%. The New Democratic Party (NDP) under Jagmeet Singh only took 12% of the vote share, while the Bloc Québécois netted 6%, and the Green Party 3%. 

“After nearly four years of Conservative dominance in the polls, the Liberal Party of Canada has taken a two-point lead among decided voters, overturning a 26-point deficit from just six weeks ago,” Ipsos explained in a report. 

“Support for the Bloc Québécois has declined (-3 points), while the NDP vote continues to collapse (-4 points), further strengthening the Liberals,” Ipsos continued. However, it is support for the Conservative Party that has suffered the most. 

Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives were five points down from previous polling, a situation that Ipsos attributed to the growing anti-Tump sentiment in Canada and the anticipation of a new Liberal leader following the resignation of Trudeau. 

Ipsos conducted its polling from February 21st to the 24th. However, it wasn’t the only market research firm to find that the Liberal Party has taken a lead in the federal vote share. EKOS Politics also released a new poll showing a similar shift. 

On February 25th, EKOS Politics published findings from polling it conducted between February 17th and the 24th. It revealed the Liberal Party leading the Conservative Party at 38.4% to 37% while the NDP at 11.8%. 

“The federal Liberal Party has edged ahead of the Conservative Party for the first time since May 2022,” EKOS Politics explained. The market research firm added the Liberal was “a statistically insignificant margin” thought trends were changing in Canada. 

“At 38 and 37 points, respectively, the Liberals and Conservatives are in a virtual tie; however, the underlying regional dynamics would favour the more seat-efficient Liberal vote if an election were held tomorrow,” EKOS Politics explained. 

EKOS Politics discovered that the Liberals enjoyed a seven-point lead in Ontario while the Bloc Québécois vote in Quebec has collapsed, resulting in progressive voters rallying to the Liberal banner across the province in response to the threat of US tariffs and annexation.  

The Liberal Party now has a 12-point lead in Quebec. However, things are a bit closer in British Columbia where the Liberals and Conservatives are running neck-in-neck. The Liberals still lead in Atlantic Canada while the Conservatives have a firm grasp on the Western provinces. 

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