Canadians think Trump is right about the northern border

On November 25th, President-Elect Donald Trump dropped a bombshell on Mexico and Canada when he warned on Truth Social that the United States would impose a 25% tariff on all goods from each nation on his first day in office unless they fixed their border issues. 

Trump specifically said that Canada and Mexico needed to prevent the flow of illegal immigrants and drugs into the U.S. if they wanted the tariffs removed. But were the claims about the border that Trump made true?

When it comes to the problem on the northern border, several Canadian news outlets have tried to figure out the reality of the problem, and while it does appear that Trump wasn’t wrong about the border issue, the problem compared to Mexico is less severe.

According to data from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection quoted by The Globe and Mail, the northern border has seen its fair share of border patrol encounters by the American agency over the previous four years and the number has been on the rise. 

In the 2021-22 fiscal year, a period running from October 1st to September 30th, the northern border saw 2,238 encounters by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP). In the 2022-23 fiscal year, encounters rose to 10,021, and 23,721 in 2023-24. 

While the number of encounters on the northern border may seem high, in the same periods the U.S. southern border saw 2,206,436, 2,045,838, and 1,530,523 encounters. The same situation plays out when it comes to drug smuggling across the borders. 

CBP data shows that the amount of drugs seized that were smuggled from the northern border to the United States pales in comparison to the figure from the southern border. 

In 2022, 27,260 kilograms, roughly 60,000 pounds of narcotics were seized along the northern border entering the U.S., a figure which dropped down to 5,260 kilograms, or roughly 11,600 pounds in 2023.

In the 2022-23 fiscal year, CBP seized roughly 109,200 kilograms (240,500 pounds) of narcotics on the southern border and roughly 124,000 kilograms (270,000 pounds) in the 2023-24 fiscal year. 

When it comes to Trump’s claim about fentanyl specifically, 19.5 kilograms (430 pounds) were seized on the northern border in 2024, three times more than the figure two years ago, but roughly ten tonnes were seized on the southern border.  

While the data may show that the immigration and drug problem on the northern border is minuscule compared to the issues on the southern border, Canadians agree with the president-elect in his assessment of the situation. 

A recent poll from Leger discovered that just 29% of Canadians polled believed Trump’s worries about the immigration and drug problem on the northern border, and even more are worried about the president-elect’s tariffs. 

Eight out of ten Canadians (79%) think that Trump’s tariffs on Canadian goods will likely result in higher inflation while 78% reported they believed the tariffs were much more likely or somewhat more likely to lead to a recession. 

Another shocking result from the Leger poll was the finding that only 31% of respondents said they had confidence in the federal government’s ability to manage Trump and his tariffs. 

“They’ve got work to do. The border issue does present somewhat of an opportunity for the government to take some real deliberate action,” said Leger Vice-President Andrew Enns according to National Post. 

“Canadians are deeply dissatisfied with the government. The popularity of the prime minister and his party is suffering… they’re just not feeling confident about how the prime minister is going to measure up against the incoming president,” Enns added  

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