The century of climate migration: how rising sea levels will create refugees
Almost a billion people are threatened by rising sea levels
The climate crisis is causing sea levels to rise faster than ever, threatening almost a billion people, the UN has warned repeatedly.
“A mass exodus on a biblical scale”
The increase in rising sea levels threatens “a mass exodus of entire populations on a biblical scale”, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in February 2023.
Most vulnerable countries
China, Bangladesh, India, Egypt, the Netherlands, the United States, Brazil, Australia, New Zealand and Pacific islands, such as Tonga and Fiji, are among the countries most at risk as sea levels rise, according to data content site Visual Capitalist.
Mega-cities in every continent will face serious effects
In addition to threatened countries, Guterres said, “mega-cities on every continent will face serious effects, including Cairo, Lagos, Maputo, Bangkok, Dhaka, Jakarta, Mumbai, Shanghai, Copenhagen, London, Los Angeles, New York, Buenos Aires and Santiago.”
Some nations could cease to exist
The UN chief went so far as to say that “some nations could cease to exist, drowned under the waves.”
“Dramatic implications” for global peace and security
Guterres (pictured) said sea level rise was a threat-multiplier which, by damaging lives, economies, and infrastructure, had “dramatic implications” for global peace and security.
Competition for resources will become fiercer
Moreover, he assured that global competition for fresh water, land and other resources would become even fiercer than it already is.
How to tackle the problem
Slashing carbon emissions, addressing poverty, and developing new international laws to protect those made homeless, and even stateless, are all necessary measures to tackle the problem, according to the UN.
Sea level rise is already inevitable
However, significant sea level rise is already inevitable with current levels of global heating, but the consequences of failing to tackle the problem are “unthinkable”, the UN chief said.
The fastest the ocean has warmed in the past 11,000 years
A recent compilation of data from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) shows that sea levels are rising fast and the global ocean has warmed faster over the past century than at any time in the past 11,000 years.
Even if we reach 1.5ºC sea level rise will affect us
Even if global heating is miraculously limited to 1.5ºC, Guterres said, there will still be a “sizeable” sea level rise.
2-3 meter rise if temperature is limited to 1.5ºC
According to the WMO there will be a 2-3 meter (6-9 ft) rise over the next 2,000 years if heating is limited to 1.5ºC, and 2-6 meter (6-19 ft) if it‘s limited to 2ºC.
We already surpassed the 1.5 Cº treshold
However, the world already surpassed the 1.5 Cº threshold for the first time in 2024, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
Risks to economy, health, water security…
Professor Petteri Taalas, WMO secretary general, said: “Sea level rise imposes risks to economies, livelihoods, settlements, health, wellbeing, food and water security and cultural values in the near to long term.”
International refugee law
In 2020, the UN human rights committee ruled that it was unlawful for governments to return people to countries where their lives might be threatened by the climate crisis.
Human rights
“People’s human rights do not disappear because their homes do,” the UN chief declared then.
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