Russia is raising a huge amount of troops, but for what?

Russia is in the process of raising one hundred thousand soldiers and could be planning to use the newly prepared troops for an offensive in the summer according to comments from the Commander of Ukraine’s Ground Forces. 

Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavliuk was put in charge of the Ukrainian ground forces in February 2024 following a shake-up of the country’s military leadership by Volodymyr Zelensky as a means to reinvigorate the war effort. 

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Since Pavliuk was put in charge of the ground forces, he’s been an important source of information on the war and recently revealed on Ukrainian television that Russia was in the process of preparing 100,000 new troops.  

What Moscow is planning to do with its new troops is not yet known. “Russia’s plans are completely unknown to us,” Pavliuk said according to a translation by Ukrianska Pravda. But the lieutenant general offered a few theories. 

“We can only go off the data they have shared,” Pavliuk said, “They are forming a group of over 100,000 troops, and not necessarily for mounting a new offensive. Perhaps they will replenish the units that are losing combat capability.”

“However, it is possible that by the beginning of the summer, they will have sufficient forces to conduct appropriate offensive operations in one direction,” the commander continued before revealing the severity of the problem. 

Pavliuk called the predicted number of troops being raised by Moscow “dire” saying that Ukraine would do everything it could to inflict as many casualties on Russia and draw in as much of their enemy's resources as it could.  

“We are preparing for a different outcome of the situation,” Pavliuk continues. Business Insider noted that this includes Ukraine beginning to withdraw some of its brigades so that they can restore their combat capabilities.  

Pavliuk’s comments come just days after Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that Russia had recruited hundreds of thousands of contract soldiers and was planning to create two new armies according to Reuters. 

"By the end of the year, we plan to form two combined arms armies and 30 formations, including 14 divisions and 16 brigades," Shoigu explained according to a translation of his comments from the Kyiv Independent. 

"We will continue to strengthen the Russian military proportionately to emerging threats to our country's security,” the Russian Defense Minister continued, adding that a new army corps, motorized division, and riverboat brigade had been formed.  

Russia has suffered hundreds of thousands of casualties since Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine but estimates vary greatly depending on the source of the data. As of March 25th, the Ukrainian General Staff claimed Russian losses to be 434,710.

However, on February 1st, 2024, British Secretary of Defence James Heappey said that the United Kingdom estimated Russia had suffered approximately 350,000 casualties, meaning killed and wounded, since the start of the war. 

February 2024 was a particularly bad month for Russian losses and the British Ministry of Defence reported in an intelligence update on the war that the average daily number of Russian casualties was 983 soldiers per day.

“The increase in the daily average almost certainly reflects Russia's commitment to mass and attritional warfare. Although costly in terms of human life, the resulting effect has increased the pressure on Ukraine's positions across the frontline,” the update read. 

While Russia may be raising new troops to replace its losses, Pavliuk noted that Russia may be working to keep up its momentum after capturing Avdiivka, where along with the directions of Bakhmut and Lyman, Moscow is currently focusing its resources.