John Fetterman's odd path to victory in Pennsylvania's Senate race

Pennsylvania Senate hopeful John Fetterman has been declared the winner in his race against Republican opponent Mehmet Oz. But how did Fetterman pull off a victory after such a long and disastrous campaign?

The American midterm elections on November 8th were set to be some of the most important in recent history. One of the most closely watched races was Pennsylvania’s Senate face-off, which had several ups and downs after former Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey announced his retirement in October 2020. 

Fetterman was one of the first candidates to throw his name into the hat for the Pennsylvania Senate seat. Over the weeks that followed 15 other major candidates from both parties would join the race. 

Fetterman’s most likely opponent was thought to be Sean Parnell, a decorated army veteran with close ties to the Trump family. Parnell even received an official endorsement from the former president, but his time as front-runner didn’t last long. 

In an attempt to derail Parnell’s Senate candidacy, Parnell's Republican opponents revealed two temporary protective orders issued against the senatorial hopeful by his estranged wife, Laurie Snell. This opened the door for disputes that would sink Parnell's campaign.

During a three-day trial over custody rights, Snell accused Parnell of physically abusing her— claiming that he had choked her on a number of occasions and struck both their children in the past. 

On November 22nd the judge in the custody case ruled in favor of Laurie Snell. In his final statement to the courtroom, Judge James Arner issued an opinion that Snell had been the more credible witness and that he believed her when she testified about the physical abuse she and her children experienced. 

“She provided factual details of each incident, including when they happened and what happened,” Judge Arner wrote in his judicial opinion, “she testified in a convincing manner. Her testimony was not uncertain, confused, self-contradictory, or evasive.”

Parnell dropped out of Pennsylvania primary race within hours of Judge Arner’s ruling, though he maintained that he was falsely accused. Parnell’s departure from the race then left the window open for a new candidate that would transform the race. 

Mehmet Oz, an accomplished heart surgeon and popular daytime TV host, joined the race for Pennsylvania’s Senate seat when he launched his campaign on November 30th. Oz would bring his immense star power and wealth to the campaign trail.

Mehmet Oz’s main opponent in the primary would turn out to be David McCormick. An army veteran that served with the George W. Bush administration, McCormick was a well-connected hedge fund manager and CEO whose campaign brought insider support and enough wealth to match Mehmet Oz’s campaign. 

After a series of stunning attack ads, McCormick took the lead over Oz. But on April 9th, all of McCormick’s plans were ruined when former president Donald Trump announced his endorsement of fellow TV star, Dr. Oz. 

"This is all about winning elections in order to stop the Radical Left maniacs from destroying our Country," Trump said in an official statement promoting Oz, "I have known Dr. Oz for many years, as have many others, even if only through his very successful television show. He has lived with us through the screen and has always been popular, respected, and smart."

While Oz was in his struggle against McCormick, Fetterman was struggling against his own primary opponents. On March 31st, Conor Lamb revealed that in 2013 Fetterman pulled a shotgun on an unarmed Black jogger in Braddock. Fetterman claimed it was in response to hearing the sound of gunshots, but the incident tested Fetterman’s primary lead. 

In a stunning turn of events, Republican hopeful Kathy Barnette began to surge in Pennsylvania’s GOP primary race against Oz and McCormick. Barnette shook up the final days of the primary with her “Ultra-MAGA” rhetoric that played well with some Pennsylvanian voters. 

Fetterman was curiously absent for much of the final stretch of the Democratic primary, a time when candidates are usually attending daily events. It was revealed on May 13th, fewer than 48 hours before the primary election, that Fetterman had suffered a major stroke. However, this did not stop him from winning his primary with all 67 counties backing him. 

Oz and McCormick’s close race triggered an automatic recount. The men were separated by less than 1 percentage point and no winner was declared on a primary day. 

In a race that already seemed to have every twist and turn, a federal court ruling from a different election allowed mail-in ballots that voters failed to date to be counted if they arrived at election offices in time. This was counter to state law and opened the door for a swath of new votes to be counted. 

On June 3rd, just days after the U.S. Supreme Court was forced to weigh in on the legality of mail-in ballots in the Pennsylvania race, McCormick conceded.

On the same day that McCormick conceded, new details about the severity of John Fetterman's stroke were revealed. Fetterman said that he nearly died but doctors stated that he would be fit for the campaigning soon. 

Over the next few months, both candidates suffered a number of humiliating setbacks. Oz was accused of harboring dual loyalties over his Turkish citizenship and was routinely mocked by Pennsylvanian voters for being a tourist rather than a resident. Fetterman had been accused of being a recluse who was unable to function properly after his stroke.

“He doesn’t want to leave his home we don’t think,” Oz said in a live TV  interview with Fox News, “I’ve done 160 events in the last month and a half. I’m in central Pennsylvania right now.”

Even though Fetterman was suffering from the fallout of a major stroke, he was still leading Oz in the polls. In an interview with CNN's Dana Bush, Fetterman revealed that his audiovisual processing had been affected, but that he was still able to represent the voters of Pennsylvania. 

On October 26th John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz met on the debate stage and it did not go well for Fetterman. Stumbling over his words and unable to speak coherently, the debate left many questioning the stroke survivors' fitness to serve. 

“Why did John Fetterman’s team agree to tonight’s debate,” John Hendricks wrote in The Atlantic, “Fetterman prioritized speed over lucidity, and his disjointed sentences made his struggles unmistakable. This evening, Fetterman may have lost whatever swing voters are left in Pennsylvania.”

Little was heard from Fetterman during the final days of the campaign. The race tightened up after his disastrous debate performance and many political pundits predicted a Republican win.

According to Real Clear Politics, John Fetterman had once held a commanding 13-point lead over Oz. But that lead evaporated to just over 0.3-points. 

Despite the close race, John Fetterman was declared the winner of Pennsylvania's Senate race with just over 50% of the vote. This victory marked a crucial win for the embattled Democratic Party as they fight to secure control of the Senate.