Debunking four of Trump’s biggest myths about NATO

On February 15th, Donald Trump doubled down on his controversial position that the United States under him wouldn’t defend any NATO country that wasn't spending the recommended 2% of its Gross Domestic Production defense while at a rally in South Carolina. 

“I’ve been saying, ‘Look, if they’re not going to pay, we’re not going to protect, OK? And Biden who said, ‘Oh, this is so bad. This is so terrible that he would say that.’ No,” the former president explained to a crowd of his political supporters.

Trump went on to tell the crowd that he had seen the defense budgets of each country and explained that “nobody’s paying their bills” according to a quote published by Politico. But that wasn’t the only thing Trump had to say on the matter. 

“One of the heads of the countries said ‘Does that mean that if we don’t pay the bills, that you’re not going to protect us?’” Trump recounted. The former president then replied, “‘That’s exactly what it means. I’m not going to protect you,’” Trump said. 

Statements like the ones the former president made in South Carolina have taken up a lot of time in the news cycle since Trump was elected to office in 2016. However, much of what the former president says about NATO isn’t always right.

There are at least four misconceptions about NATO that Trump likes to perpetuate and one of the biggest is his take on the defensive alliance’s 2% defense investment guideline. Trump has long criticized those who understand but the rule isn’t an obligation. 

In 2006, NATO Defense Ministers agreed to commit to spending at least 2% of their GDP on defense spending to ensure the alliance’s “military readiness” in 2006 according to NATO’s website, and this guideline was reaffirmed in 2014 in a non-binding way. 

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Foreign and Commonwealth Office, CC BY 2.0

The 2% spending guideline was written in a way that didn’t obligate NATO countries to meet the stated needs of the alliance but asked members to “aim to move towards the 2% guideline within a decade with a view to meeting their NATO Capability Targets and filling NATO’s capability shortfalls,” according to the 2014 Wales Summit Declaration. 

The Wales Summit Declaration clearly outlined that NATO member states didn’t need to meet the alliance's 2% spending guideline until 2024, and the 2023 Vilnius Summit saw NATO leaders committed to a new investment pledge to meet the 2% spending goal. 

When Trump was president, he claimed that NATO spending had declined “every single year” before he took office, according to remarks he made on January 9th, 2020. But that isn’t true based on analysis from CNN.

Data from NATO shows that non-US member spending increased in the two years before Trump took office. Spending rose by 1.6% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, increases which CNN noted came after the 2014 Wales Summit. 

However, Trump does deserve some credit for bumping up spending during his time as president according to the alliance’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. In something he did in March 2018 during a joint press conference with Trump. 

“Let me thank you for the leadership you show on the issue of defense spending because it is very important that we all contribute more to our shared security, and it is really having an impact… All allies are increasing their defense budgets,” Stoltenberg said according to Politico. 

Under Trump, non-US defense spending increased to 5.9% in 2017, 4.3% in 2018, 3.6% in 2019, and 4.6% in 2020 according to figures reported by CNN, all of which likely wouldn’t have been so high had it not been for Trump’s push to increase spending. 

In February 2020, Trump claimed the United States was “paying close to 100% percent” of the cost of NATO, which is what prompted him to grill the alliance’s member states in order to get them to cough up $130 billion dollars for NATO. 

Trump’s claim wasn’t true. Figures from NATO in 2016 show that indirect US funding for the alliance was 77%. While that number is high, it isn’t close to 100%. Moreover, direct funding for the alliance from the US at the time was roughly 22% according to the New York Times. 

Trump has criticized NATO for the cost of the alliance's headquarters both during and after his term in office, claiming that the structure in Belgium cost the alliance about $3 billion dollars. However, this is false according to official data. 

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Ad Meskens, Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0

CNN reported that NATO’s headquarters was built for a sum that came in just under the approved budget total of 1.178 billion euros, an amount the American news outlet wrote was equivalent to $1.27 billion dollars based on the exchange rate on February 12th, 2024.