How Europe is preparing in the face of Russian threats

Faced with the Russian threat and the American disengagement in Europe, while the war in Ukraine enters its fourth year, European leaders are calling for a rearmament of the continent.

"Russia's very considerable rearmament in progress must lead Europeans to react independently of what happens elsewhere and of American positions," declared French President Emmanuel Macron at a press conference on February 17.

The situation is all the more urgent because, according to several intelligence services, Russia could invade a European NATO member country by 2029, while Paris is considering sending troops to Ukraine to guarantee peace once the future agreement is signed.

As the leading power in Eastern Europe, Poland has for years been pursuing a policy of rearmament and firmness towards Moscow. The country has recently decided to move up a gear.

Warsaw will spend 4.7% of its GDP on its army in 2025, making it proportionally the largest military contributor of all NATO countries. The recruitment of 300,000 soldiers by 2035 has been launched.

"Warsaw's ambition for its land forces, but also for anti-aircraft defence, is such that a 50% achievement would be enough to make Poland a key security player in the security architecture of NATO's eastern flank," indicates a note from the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), ‘Libération’ reported.

The Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), which are the Kremlin's main targets given their small size and proximity to Russian territory, are also at the forefront of rearmament in Europe.

Lithuania has even "reintroduced military conscription, doubled the size of its armed forces and increased defense spending to 3.4% of GDP, one of the highest levels of any NATO country," ‘France 24’ reports.

All three Baltic states, as well as Finland (also a NATO member and bordering Russia) have placed anti-tank devices on their respective borders with Russia and Belarus.

Moreover, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have recently completed their connection to the European electricity grid, which has allowed them to break away from the Russian grid and protect themselves from possible pressure through it.

The director of the Centre for Geopolitical Studies in Riga, quoted by ‘France 24’, Māris Andžāns believes that we are “much better prepared than ten years ago" in the event of a Russian invasion.

The expert nevertheless points out that Latvia "still does not have air defence, which would be essential in the event of an armed conflict".

In Denmark, the government led by Mette Frederiksen has announced the creation of a fund of 50 billion crowns (around 6.7 billion euros) to strengthen its military budget over the 2025-2026 period.

"We must massively strengthen ourselves to protect Denmark. And we must massively rearm to avoid war," declared the Prime Minister, quoted by ‘Le Fígaro’, in the face of what she sees as "the most dangerous situation" in the history of her country.

The effort is expected to increase Denmark's military spending to 3% of GDP. According to Danish public broadcaster DR, the army is to acquire air defence systems that it does not currently have.

Having long remained in the background on the military scene, Germany also decided on massive rearmament following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, through the creation of a special fund of 100 billion euros.

While the rearmament effort has not yet fully come to fruition, the future chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has said that the country must prepare for the "worst case scenario", that of a withdrawal of American military protection, ‘Euronews’ reported.

Since 1945, Germany has relied on the transatlantic partnership and the protection guaranteed by the United States, which makes it reluctant to accept the concept of "European strategic autonomy" advocated by France.

However, Merz has declared himself "in complete agreement" with Emmanuel Macron on the need for a common European defense, based on the purchase of weapons produced in Europe. Despite repeated requests from Paris, Berlin is used to purchasing from American companies.

"The Commission will announce very clear decisions to allow Member States to increase their military budgets," Macron said on February 17. The French president wants to remove military spending from the deficit calculation carried out by Brussels.

Furthermore, Germany signed the Trinity House defence agreement with the United Kingdom at the end of 2024, which provides, among other things, "joint work to develop long-range strike weapons".

The treaty also provides for the British and German armies to train more regularly in the Baltic countries in order to strengthen NATO's eastern flank. A necessary step towards a stronger and more integrated European defense.

Never miss a story! Click here to follow The Daily Digest.