Poor Ukrainian defenses around Avdiivka allowed Russia to advance

Russia quickly made small gains in the area around Avdiivka after the fall of the city and in February and much of Moscow’s success was because of poor Ukrainian defenses in the region according to a from the New York Times. 

Journalists revealed that Ukraine’s trench lines to the west of Avdiivka were both sparse and rudimentary based on satellite imagery the news outlet had reviewed. The trenches also lack additional fortifications to help slow tanks. 

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Avdiivka became the focus of Russian efforts in the war back in October 2023 when the Kremlin launched its first offensive to capture the city. Moscow eventually took Avdiivka after a long war that cost tens of thousands of casualties. 

Ukrainian Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi claimed Moscow lost roughly 47,000 soldiers fighting for the city according to Newsweek. However, Russia did not stop after it captured the city and kept pushing its advantage.

By March 1st, Russian forces had taken three villages to the west of Avdiivka and were contesting one other, the New York Times reported. Other sources backed up the gains made by Russia, including the British Defense Ministry. 

On February 29th, the British Ministry of Defense published an update reporting that the area to the west of Avidiivka had become the focal point of Russian efforts in the east. It also noted that Russian forces had made big advances. 

Russia pushed six kilometers or about three and a half miles from the center of Avdiivka and took control of the towns of Lastochkyne, Stepove, and Sieverne, gains that helped Russia consolidate its positions around Avdiivka. 

“Russia is also likely seeking to build momentum on the axis to take advantage of the fact that there are fewer fixed, well-defended positions, and urban areas from which Ukrainian forces can defend,” the defense ministry explained. 

The New York Times reported that Ukrainian forces had ample time to prepare defenses against Russia in this area and noted that what could be seen in the satellite imagery did not look robust. But what was the reason for the poor defense?

Journalists concluded that Ukraine had focused too much of its attention on its offensive operations and did not adequately prepare defenses in the area to the west of Avdiivka. One military official described the situation perfectly. 

“Who cared and who considered it as an option—because it’s a very costly option—the construction of defensive lines? No one,” retired Ukrainian colonel Serhiy Hrabskyi told the New York Times, adding that Kyiv had limited resources. 

“We have a lack of engineering units,” Hrabskyi explained. “And even the units we have lack equipment.” The New York Times also reported there was likely a psychological in play at the time that led to the area's poor defenses. 

“If Ukrainian troops heavily mined certain areas to thwart Russian advances, it would be a tacit acknowledgment that they were unlikely to carry out offensive operations in the same area at a future date,” the Times journalists explained. 

Luckily for Ukraine, Russia’s progress around Avdiivka has stalled out near three critical villages according to a separate New York Times report. Russia may have captured the initiative but the battle in the area is still back-and-forth. 

“The capture of Avdiivka has not led to the collapse of Ukrainian lines, the possibility for the Russians to move onto open ground or even to make major gains,” Deputy Director of the Institute for Strategic and Defense Studies Thibault Fouillet told the New York Times. 

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“There’s no decisive action or breakthrough,” Fouillet added. But the situation isn’t ideal and the next days and weeks might prove to be some of the most crucial for the war as Ukraine tries to set up a new defensive line in the region.