Avdiivka is Russia's biggest gain in months, but what does it mean for Ukraine?

The Ukrainian Armed Forces pulled out of Avdiivka after a months-long bloody struggle for control of the city that saw tens of thousands of soldiers killed or wounded. Moscow is on the move again, but what does this mean?

Avdiivka became the focus of an intense offensive that aimed to capture the city back in October 2023. However, the situation took months to degrade to a point when Ukrainian troops were forced to pull out of the critical city. 

Newly appointed Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi revealed the retreat from Avdiivka on February 17th, noting in a message quoted by The Independent that the operation forced Ukraine to withdraw. 

“Based on the operational situation around Avdiivka, in order to avoid encirclement and preserve the lives and health of servicemen, I decided to withdraw our units from the city and move to defense on more favorable lines,” Syrskyi said. 

Sryski also explained that the Ukrainian Armed Forces did everything they could to stop Russia’s advance, and inflicted a significant amount of losses in terms of equipment and manpower. These numbers were later revealed. 

On February 18th, the Commander of the Tavria Operational-Strategic Group in charge of the Ukrainian forces who defended Avdiivka explained that Russia lost 47,186 troops between October 10th, 2023, and February 17th, 2024. 

Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi’s casualty number was reported by Newsweek, and so were his estimates on key equipment. Russia lost 364 tanks, 248 artillery pieces, 748 armored vehicles, and 5 jets in the same timeframe.

Russia paid a steep price to capture Avdiivka, the first key Ukrainian city that has fallen since Bakhmut was captured by Moscow in May 2023. However, the cost to capture the city may be worth it in the long run for Moscow. 

Avdiivka was seen as an important settlement that Russia needed to capture if it wanted to take full control of Donetsk Oblast according to The Independent. Avdiivka may have also provided a gateway for Ukraine to attack Russian-occupied territory. 

There are other experts who think the city’s fall means little in the grand scheme of the war. For example, Senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations Gustav Gressel called Avdiivka’s capture “strategically insignificant.”

"It would have been a good foot in the door for a Ukrainian offensive" Gressel went on to say according to the AFP, but added that such an offensive would not take place for years so there was “no sense to sacrifice soldiers now.”

More importantly, Reuters noted that Avdiivka’s capture will provide a “morale boost for Russia ahead of Putin's bid for re-election next month.” Putin is widely expected to win in Russia, but the capture of Avdiivka is helpful. 

Newsweek’s Ellie Cook reported the capture of Avdiivka was both a “prize for Moscow, symbolically and strategically,” pointing out the city’s fall will allow “Russia to expand its logistical operations and could pave the way towards other important settlements further west.”

General Syrskyi noted in his message about Avdiivka’s fall that steps were being taken to stabilize the Ukrainian lines and maintain the country’s position. But Russia’s win may provide an opportunity to make more advances. 

BBC News reported that the capture of Avdiivka shows that Russia’s size advantage is playing a big role on the battlefield. Commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade, which was added to the fight in Avdiivka just before its fall, said his troops were outnumbered 7 to 1. 

"It's like fighting two armies,” Major Rodion Kudryashov explained before adding he didn’t think Russia went further west into cities like Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka. However, only time will reveal what comes next for Ukraine.