Ceasefire in Lebanon but for how long?

On Wednesday, November 27, the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, between Benjamin Netanyahu and Hezbollah, was officially announced. For ordinary people, it is simply great news. Thousands of people will be able to return to their homes and the threat of dying under bombs will disappear.

In the picture, an Israeli tanker celebrates the ceasefire. Israel's offensive has resulted in the physical elimination of almost all of Hezbollah's leadership, as well as a ground invasion of Lebanon that began on October 1, 2024. But what happens now?

At the moment, there is a 60-day truce and, according to The New York Times, Israeli troops will withdraw from the territory they occupy in Lebanon and will be replaced by Lebanese military forces as a way of ensuring that Hezbollah fighters do not overtake those enclaves.

Analysts point to the fragility of a peace that depends on Hezbollah remaining inactive. The idea that the Lebanese military can control Hezbollah is not very convincing, as The New York Times (again) points out.

Israel attacked Lebanon to hit Hezbollah for the organization's alleged support for the brutal crimes committed by Hamas on October 7, 2023. Israel's revenge included the elimination of virtually all of Hezbollah's leadership. And it is foreseeable that Hezbollah will, in turn, try to take revenge sooner or later.

Whatever the case, peace is now returning to Lebanon. One million people who had to flee their homes because of the Israeli offensive can now return home. Thousands are already doing so.

Once the ceasefire has been reached, the political conclusions are contradictory depending on its origin. The Netanyahu government can sell it as a success (although the most extremist elements of the cabinet, according to Haaretz, wanted to continue fighting) and in Iran (a country allied with Hezbollah) the official media speak of "Israel's defeat", as reported by the BBC.

And then there is Lebanon, a once prosperous country that has been plagued for decades by civil wars, sectarian political disputes and tensions with its neighbor Israel.

The reality is complicated for Lebanon, but now it is time to celebrate that its inhabitants can enjoy a period of peace. Although it will probably not be very long. And there is still the hard task of rebuilding the country.

It is difficult for the Lebanese to trust in the future. But at least they now know that for a while no more Israeli bombs will fall on their territory.

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