China’s clean-energy lead could leave the fossil-fueled US in the dark ages

Climate activists around the world are hardly jumping for joy at the prospect of a second Trump term in office, but experts believe it may not have the routing impact on the global green transition they fear.

This is because the US lags far behind China regarding the production and consumption of green technology.

While American politics is awash with climate deniers and businesses failing to consider the long-term gains, Chinese society is absolutely on board with the green revolution.

The Chinese state is pushing the green agenda and has spent 10 times more on clean energy than the US over the past five years, according to The Conversation.

China dominates the expanding renewables manufacturing market, producing 90% of all solar panels, over 70% of all lithium batteries, and 65% of all wind turbines – in what is predicted to become a multi-trillion-dollar global industry in the near future.

According to the International Energy Agency, China has more than 80% market share of all the stages in the solar energy supply chain.

When it comes to electric vehicles, the US has been slow to catch on with only 10% of its car market electric compared with 40% in China.

This means Donald Trump’s ambitions to scrap EV subsidies will not significantly change the US’ carbon footprint.

According to The Financial Times, due to the stiff tariffs on Chinese parts, the US is already on track to becoming “a high-price low-tech island.”

Other factors that could soften the blow to global green transition that a Trump administration supposes is President Biden’s 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

One of the aims of the IRA was to promote investment in domestic clean energy production which has involved a significant number of Republican-governed states.

According to experts, it is unlikely Trump will row back on the business opportunities provided in Republican states by the IRA, which brings in nearly $400 billion in the form of tax credits and grants for cleantech investment.

“No matter what Trump may say, the shift to clean energy is unstoppable and our country is not turning back,” Gina McCarthy, White House Climate Advisor under Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden, told Cypher News.

“Keep in mind that the bulk of these clean energy projects are operating or under construction in Republican districts,” she added.

“Because it is undeniably true that the IRA is good for businesses and good for all Americans, any attempted rollback of the IRA is a fool’s errand,” she said.

But, as the Bruegel think tank points out, it is Trump’s sweeping tariff ambitions – from 10% to 60% – and the global interest-rate hikes they imply which could turn out to be the real sting to the green transition and investors’ enthusiasm for it.

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