Is Russia running out of tanks to fight the war?

According to a new report, Moscow may run out of tanks over the next two or three years and could soon have a tank fleet smaller than that of Ukraine. Here’s what the analysis found and what it could mean for the war in Ukraine. 

David Axe is a Forbes staff writer who reports on various topics related to global war. In one of his most recent articles, he suggested that Moscow might be running out of tanks based on its assumed replacement rates.

Figuring out the exact number of tanks Russia has lost since launching its invasion isn’t an easy task since Moscow doesn’t release any information on its losses. But there are a few sources that we can look at for answers. 

The Ukrainian General Staff estimated that as of January 13th, Russia had lost at least 6,505 tanks. However, trusting data from Moscow’s main opponent in the conflict is not the best measure of Russia’s total losses. 

Declassified US Intelligence released in December revealed that Russia began the war with roughly 3,100 tanks and lost about 2,200 throughout the conflict by the time the intel was released, leaving Moscow with 900 of the original tanks it began the invasion with. 

However, the declassified intelligence also reported that Russia backfilled its losses with a number of T-62 tank models originally produced in the 1970s according to a Reuters report on the intel, leaving Russia with roughly 1,300 tanks at its disposal.

The American figures matched well with those from the Dutch open-source intelligence group Oryx, which has been using verified photo and video evidence to count material losses for Ukraine and Russia since the war started. 

As of January 13th, Oryx assessed that Russia had lost at least 2,612 tanks since the conflict began in February 2022, of which 1,720 had been destroyed while 146 were damaged, 204 were abandoned, and 542 were captured.

David Axe noted in his report, published on January 10th, that one of the most critical factors in determining how many tanks Russia could field came down to how many Moscow could replace with new or modernized vehicles. 

Axe pointed out the Kremlin claimed it received 1,500 modernized tanks in 2023 after it ramped up efforts to produce more usable tanks, and if that figure were accurate, it would be in addition to about 500 new and modernized tanks Moscow obtained in 2022.  

After losses and replacement figures were accounted for, Axe wrote that Moscow might have a tank force of roughly 2,400 vehicles—which Axe wrote was more than what Ukraine was operating and enough to meet the war’s current demands. 

However, other analysis has suggested that Russia might have far fewer tanks according to what Russian factories can actually produce based on an August 2023 report from the French open-source intelligence cell ARI. 

The ARI report claimed that Russia was only producing about 390 new and modernized tanks a year, which David Axe reported could put the current total Russian tank count at somewhere around 1,180, far less than Ukraine's stocks.

However, the number from ARI number should be taken with a grain of salt since the figures are nearly six months old. Moreover, other groups such as the Swedish Defence  Research Agency (FOI) have placed Russian production at higher levels. 

According to a Defense Express breakdown of FOI's findings, FOI noted in a September 2023 report that Russia was likely producing 520 new tanks a year, including several types of T-90, T-80, and T-72 models. 

The truth of the matter is that the number of tanks Russia currently has available to fight the war with is unknown, and so is the actual number of replacement tanks that Moscow can produce every year to backfill its battlefield needs. 

However, what we do know is that Russia has lost thousands of tanks based on intelligence from both the United States and Oryx, whether or not Moscow can continue to sustain such high losses as the war drags on into its third year has yet to be seen.