Leaked documents reveal worrying nature of Russian nuclear doctrine

Leaked military documents have revealed the minimum criteria for the use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia and given Western observers new insight into the Kremlin’s doctrine when it comes to using nuclear weapons. 

The leaked documents included a group of twenty-nine classified military files that were created between 2008 and 2014 according to Financial Times, which reviewed the files and reported on the secrets that were contained within. 

Included in the files were war gaming scenarios and presentations for naval officers, as well as discussions regarding when nuclear weapons should be used against an enemy. Several very worrying possible scenarios were outlined. 

For example, Russia could choose to launch a nuclear response from something as general as an enemy incursion into its territory to something a lot more specific, like the destruction of 20% of the country’s strategic ballistic missile submarines. 

Flies that made up part of a presentation noted that the threshold for the use of tactical nuclear weapons would be the result of a combination of factors that  “would irrevocably lead to their failure to stop major enemy aggression,” the Financial Times quoted. 

Other possible scenarios that could result in a nuclear response from Moscow included the destruction of 30% of the country’s attack submarines, three or more cruisers, three airfields, or a concurrent strike on coastal command centers. 

The documents also noted Russia would be willing to use its tactical nuclear arsenal as a means to accomplish goals like containing or stopping states from using aggression, or as a means to prevent a state from escalating a conflict. 

Russian doctrine in the documents also outlined that the use of a tactical nuclear weapon would be allowed to prevent Russia from losing a battle or territory or in the case the weapon would make the Russian Navy “more effective” according to Financial Times. 

Director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center Alexander Gabuev told the Financial Times that the leaks were “the first time that we have seen documents like this reported in the public domain.” Gabuev noted the leaks were worrying. 

“They show that the operational threshold for using nuclear weapons is pretty low if the desired result can’t be achieved through conventional means,” Gabuev added. But how relevant are documents that are now over a decade old?

The Financial Times reported that while the documents may be old, they still provide relevant information when it comes to understanding Russia’s current military doctrine on the issue according to the experts the news outlet spoke with. 

Jack Watling of the London-based think tank Royal United Services Institute explained to the Financial Times that the leaked documents were meant to help train soldiers for the situations they might face rather than for the use of nuclear weapons. 

“At this level, the requirement is for units to maintain — over the course of a conflict — the credible option for policymakers to employ nuclear weapons,” Watling said. “This would be a political decision.”

One of the most interesting portions of the leaked documents is the files that outline a hypothetical attack by China as part of a war game that would result in a tactical nuclear response if the opposing forces advanced with second-wave forces. 

“The order has been given by the commander-in-chief . . . to use nuclear weapons . . . in the event the enemy deploys second-echelon units and the South threatens to attack further in the direction of the main strike,” the document said Financial Times reported. 

Financial Times noted that only the Russian President has the authority to launch a nuclear first strike and that Vladimir Putin has previously outlined two thresholds for the use of a nuclear weapon. 

The two thresholds included retaliation against an enemy that fired nuclear weapons at Russia first and the use of a nuclear weapon if the Russian state was under threat, even if that threat only came from the use of conventional weapons.