Russia will scale back its offensives soon says Ukrainian commander

Moscow has controlled the momentum of the war in Ukraine for the better part of half a year with its ongoing offensives across the frontlines of the conflict. However, Russia can't sustain its assaults forever and will soon scale back its attacks according to one general.

Russia has put a lot of pressure on Ukraine since the latter's failed counter-offensive in the summer of 2023. Moscow captured the critical fortress city of Avdiivka in February 2024 and has recently been attempting a breakthrough at Pokrovsk. 

Russian forces have allegedly captured the eastern portion of Chasiv Yar according to The Kyiv Independent and pushed Ukrainian troops out of their foothold on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Krynky. But these wins have been costly. 

The UK Ministry of Defence reported in its daily war update on the conflict on July 12th that Moscow had suffered more than 70,000 casualties in the two months before its reporting due to the opening of a new front and its battlefield tactics on the offensive. 

May 2024 saw a high of 1,262 average casualties per day while June 2024 saw a slightly reduced amount at 1,163 according to the UK Ministry of Defence, which projected that average daily losses would remain above 1,000 casualties. But are such high losses sustainable? One Ukrainian believes Russian losses are what will force Moscow to switch to the defensive. 

On July 25th, the commander of Ukraine's National Guard, General Oleksandr Pivnenko said in an interview with Ukrinform that Russia would not be able to sustain its attacks in multiple sectors for much longer and predicted Moscow would change tactics due to its heavy losses.

"In another month and a half, they will not be able to conduct active assaults in many directions at once and will switch to defense," Pivnenko told Ukrinform according to a translation from The Kyiv Independent. 

Pivnenko also said Russian “offensive capabilities are not unlimited, considering the losses they suffer” and stressed that when the Kremlin turned its attention to replenishing its military forces, Ukraine should look to preparing its own reserves and armament. 

The Ukrainian General said that he believed if Ukraine could plan "one step ahead of Russia, then everything will be fine," and he outlined the areas that the country needed to focus on in order to prepare for the next phase of the fighting. 

"The most important thing that can be done now is training, development of training centers, procurement of weapons and military equipment, production of military equipment, drones, armored vehicles, air defense systems, man-portable air defense systems, and ammunition," Pivnenko said.

According to Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Russia currently has 520,000 strong invasion forces operating inside the country with plans to surge that number to 690,000 troops before the end of 2024, The Guardian reported. 

Ukrainian troop figures have not been made public according to the British news outlet but Syrskyi did reveal that Moscow has a major advantage when it comes to equipment. “When it comes to equipment, there is a ratio of 1:2 or 1:3 in their favor,” he said. 

Russia has doubled its tanks in Ukraine from 1,700 to 3,500 since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, and the same sort of disparity plays out with artillery systems, which have tripled, and armored personnel vehicles, which have gone from 4,500 to 8,900.

“The enemy has a significant advantage in force and resources… Therefore, for us, the issue of supply, the issue of quality, is really at the forefront,” Syrskyi explained. But how Ukraine's supplies could be affected in the future is unknown at this point. 

Beginning in October 2023, the United States Congress held up additional military aid to Ukraine for roughly six months, a situation that allowed Russia to achieve some of the battlefield wins previously listed, like Moscow’s capture of Avdiivka. 

Such a situation could happen again in the future depending on how the U.S. election in November plays out. The $60 billion in aid approved by Congress in April was set to last until the end of the 2024 fiscal year but could last until January 2025 according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies Mark F. Cacian and Chris H. Park. 

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