Should we worry about Russia’s defeat as Ukraine inches closer to victory?

Ukrainian forces seem to be gaining ground in their offensive against Russian forces in their battle to free the occupied territories. But what happens when Russia is shattered? 

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg recently said Ukraine was “gradually gaining ground” in Kyiv’s struggle to work through Moscow’s defense in the south of the country. 

“They have been able to breach the defensive lines of the Russian forces, and they are moving forward," Stoltenberg said to the European Parliament according to Reuters. 

Western media outlets have spent much of the time since the Ukranians launched their long-awaited counter-offensive complaining about the country’s major lack of progress. 

"No one ever said that this was going to be easy," Stoltenberg explained, referring to the many minefields and defensive lines established by Russia in the preceding months. 

"Hardly any time in history we have seen more mines on the battlefield, Stoltenberg said before adding that “it was obvious that this was going to be extremely difficult."

However, Ukraine’s latest breakthroughs have pushed passed Russia’s defenses and minefields in one key area on the Orikhiv front on the route to Tokmak, and it could lead to a bigger victory. 

Ukrainian forces penetrated Russia’s first defensive line in Zaporizhzhia near the end of August according to CNN and are working to breach Moscow’s second line of defense.  

But what happens if Ukrainian troops are successful? Not just in defeating Russia in the southern portion of the country but also in shattering the Kremlin and its military power. 

The possibility of a full Ukrainian victory that sees the return of not only the land seized during the full-scale invasion but also territory taken in 2014 is more possible than ever. 

President Volodymyr Zelensky has been quite clear that he will not trade Ukrainian land for peace and that only really leaves Russia’s total military defeat as the only option left. 

"Ukrainians are not ready to give away their land, to accept that these territories belong to Russia. This is our land," Zelensky said during an interview on 'The Situation Room'.

Unfortunately, a shattering Russian defeat in Ukraine would likely only make the world a far more dangerous place according to the Wall Street Journal’s Walter Russel Mead. 

​​“A Ukrainian victory would leave a weakened and discredited Kremlin squeezed by a powerful China and a rising Central Asia in the east, a reinvigorated security alliance in the west, and restive ethnic minorities at home,” Mead wrote. 

Moreover, Russia would face serious domestic challenges from Turkey, noting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan “would only grow friskier if its fear of Russia fades.”

However, the fallout from Russia’s instability in the post-war period is likely to come from the country’s nuclear and biological arsenals, which Mead fears could end up falling into the wrong hands following a total Russian loss in Ukraine. 

“Nuclear scientists could scatter to the winds, taking their skills with them. Criminal syndicates and cyber hackers could operate with impunity across an unstable Russia,” Mead added. 

Despite these realities, a Ukrainian victory is likely still the best option for lasting global peace since Putin and Russia’s actions throughout the conflict cannot go unpunished. 

Much like how the world dealt with the fallout from World War II and the Cold War, there will be unforeseen challenges and the global community will need to meet them as one in order to transition to a world where imperial ambitions aren’t the seeds of war.