What is Putin planning for his next six years in office?

Vladimir Putin has secured another six years as President of Russia following his recent election win. But what is Putin planning to do with this time in office? It is a question that could hold important consequences for the world. 

When it comes to questions about the next six years with Putin at the helm of Russia, the most pressing issue is what will happen with Ukraine. Putin likely won’t stop the invasion but its outcome could rely on the U.S. 

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Colorado School of Mines history professor Ken Osgoode explained to Newsweek that the “most consequential wild card” for Ukraine is what happens in the U.S. presidential election in 2024. Who wins could dictate the war. 

"A withdrawal of U.S. support and American pressure on Ukraine to negotiate will mean a victory for Putin,” Osgoode stated. “Even if he only holds the territory Russia presently occupies, Putin will credibly claim it as a win."

“The consequences of such a course will be felt for years,” Osgoode added, noting that it could mean Putin would invade Poland or attack NATO. But the history professor said either outcome was not “particularly likely.”

Even if the United States backed out of NATO, the alliance is still a formidable force with nuclear-armed countries backing up its other member states, any direct attack would trigger a “massive response” Osgoode said. 

The more likely outcome according to the professor of history is that Moscow will launch an aggressive cyber and information war against NATO to create tension in the alliance and foster divisions among member states. 

On the domestic homefront, the next six years are likely to see Putin tackle a number of important reforms and economic policy problems. This was something Putin pointed out in his February 29th State of the Nation Address. 

Putin promised to spend $126 billion on infrastructure and social spending over the next six years according to CNBC, which noted that Putin has a wide range of programs that will be put in place to help improve life in Russia. 

For example, programs aimed at supporting families and subsidizing mortgages will be put in place. There is a proposal to "reduce poverty and improve the nation’s health and life expectancy," two major problems Russia faces. 

Russia faces a population crisis more dire than most other countries in the world and a recent projection from the Kremlin published by The Moscow Times found the Russian population could drop to 130 million people by 2024. 

On the economic front, things are looking just as dire. Putin promised Russian voters a  “decisive breakthrough” in living standards in his last election bid according to Reuters, but that breakthrough never materialized for Russians.

Incomes in Russia have risen 7.6% since Putin made his election promises in 2018 but Reuters noted that real incomes were a fraction lower than they were in 2013. But that’s not the worst of the problems facing the Russian people. 

Inflation in Russia has surged past the 4% target set by the country’s central bank and it hit 8.4% in 2021, 11.9% in 2022, and 7.4% in 2023. Interest rates are also currently still set at a whopping 16%, a number that makes life difficult. 

In February 2024, a survey commissioned by Russia’s Central Bank revealed that 28% of people did not have enough money to buy the food, clothes, and shoes they needed. Tackling these problems should be a priority for Putin. 

However, even if Putin is able to tackle the social and economic problems facing the country, its likely repression in Russia will only get worse over the next six years. More crackdowns on dissent could be possible in the future. 

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“What one could expect inside Russia is more repression, even more efforts to cut off information that's against the regime's message, and that could take a variety of forms in terms of access to social media platforms," Brian Taylor, the author of “The Code of Putinism,” told Newsweek.