Why did Vladimir Putin replace Sergei Shoigu as Russia's Minister of Defense?

In May 2024, Vladimir Putin shocked the world when he replaced Russia's long-standing Defense Minister Sergei Shiogu with an economist who was relatively unknown outside of the political elite in Russia.

What prompted Shoigu's replacement was hotly debated by analysts at the time, even if the former Russian Defense Minister went to head up a much greater part of the government: the Russian Security Council.

As Chairman of the Russian Security Council, Shoigu was arguably put in a much more powerful position, but the seeming promotion was seen by some Western onlookers as a possible punishment for Shoigu, something that didn't make sense considering Shoigu's longstanding loyalty to Putin.

Shoigu was a long-time ally of Putin and had overseen the Russian Armed Forces since at least 2012, according to Politico's reporting when Shoigu was removed from his role as Defense Minister. 

Shoigu was set to be replaced by Andrei Belousov. A relatively unknown political official and former aide to Putin who had little name recognition outside of those who were deeply engrossed in the politics of the Kremlin. 

Politico reported that Belousov was an economist who had no military experience. It is a decision that has left many wondering why Putin chose Belousov to replace Shoigu but the answer might have been that Moscow was looking for him to take the Defense Ministry in a new direction. 

Belousov was a veteran economic advisor and his appointment to the new role of Defense Minister was “being interpreted as a sign that Putin is looking to switch gears” according to Politico. This was also clear from the signals coming out of Moscow. 

CNN reported Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov revealed during a press call that Belousov was selected for the position of Defense Minister because the country needed “innovation” and cited the military’s growing defense budget. 

“Today on the battlefield, the winner is the one who is more open to innovation,” Peskov stated. “Therefore, it is natural that at the current stage, the president decided that the Russian Ministry of Defense should be headed by a civilian.”

Peskov went on to add that Belousov was not only just a civilian but also someone who had “very successfully headed the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia,” and was a long-time aid to Putin on economic issues. 

However, according to Bloomberg News, the move might have also been less about innovation in the Russian military and more about increasing Putin’s control over military affairs as the invasion of Ukraine reached a critical turning point and news had broken about a corruption scandal in the ministry. 

Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov was detained in April 2024 and accused of taking bribes, a move the Reuters reported was unexpected and may have indicated some level of infighting in the Russian political system. 

Sergei Markov, a political consultant with close ties to the Kremlin, told  Bloomberg News at the time that “Belousov is personally loyal to Putin and he’ll sort this all out… There have been too many personal interests.”

Another reason why Putin may have put an economist in charge of the Russian Ministry of Defense could have had less to do with punishing Shoigu and more to do with the reality that the war had become the main driver of economics in Russia at the time. 

“The shake-up is about consolidating the role of the military-industrial complex as the main locomotive of the economy,” explained Evgeny Suvorov, chief Russia economist at CentroCredit Bank, to Bloomberg News. 

If Suvorov’s comments were correct, then the appointment of a skilled economist whom Putin trusted, and a man who had served as Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, would make a lot of sense and was a logical shift that could have paid dividends in the future for the Kremlin. 

“The bigger argument coming out of Moscow right now is that Russia is moving toward a war economy,” Former US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper explained to CNN during an interview on May 12th. “They’re on a war footing.” 

Former Defense Minister Shoigu’s new position as Secretary of the Russian Security Council would still see him overseeing the country’s military-industrial complex according to Dmitry Peskov, who said as much in his press call at the time.

“[Shoigu] is deeply immersed in this work, he knows very well the pace of production of military-industrial products at specific enterprises and often visits these enterprises,” the Kremlin Press Secretary told to reporters. 

However, the move to shift Shoigu’s role in Russia may have been an attempt by “Putin to keep Shoigu on side, while bringing in someone who may be able to deal with the impact of corruption across the Russian Ministry of Defense," former British military intelligence colonel and NATO planner Philip Ingram told Politico.

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