F-16s have reportedly arrived in Ukraine, but will they make a difference?

Ukraine has finally received its first batch of F-16 fighter jets according to a variety of news reports. But will these powerful 4th-generation airframes help Kyiv turn the tide in its fight to push Russian forces out of Ukraine?

On July 31st, Bloomberg News reported that an unnamed source informed the news organization that Ukraine had received its first F-16s. The Associated Press also published a report the same day citing similar news confirmed by a source in the United States government.

Social media accounts on X soon began publishing an image of what some claimed was an F-16 flying over the skies of Lviv, and while the news that these powerful fighter jets have finally arrived in Ukraine may bring hope to some, it's important to remember the warning Volodymyr Zelensky gave about the F-16 in July.

Photo Credit: X @Osinttechnical

Zelensky delivered a stark warning on July 15th cautioning the world that the F-16 fighter jets his nation would soon receive from Ukraine's international allies and partners might not be enough to turn the tide in the nation's fight against Russia.

During a press conference, Zelensky said that “the decision to transfer F-16s to Ukraine was strategic, but their number was not strategic” according to a report from Newsweek. 

Newsweek journalist Isabel Van Brugen provided some context to Zelensky’s statement by adding that the United States and its allies had begun transferring F-16s to Ukraine. 

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated at the beginning of July that F-16 fighter jets would be “flying in the skies of Ukraine this summer” to help effectively defend Ukraine. 

While Blinken's statement may have been true, Zelensky didn't see the number of jets provided by his allies as a game-changing weapon that would help Kyiv defend its territory. 

"I cannot say now how many of these aircraft there will be. They will not be enough - for what?” Zelensky explained, adding that the supply of fighter jets would help to strengthen Ukraine. 

The Ukrainian President went on to state: “Will there be enough of these aircraft to fight on par with the Russian air fleet?” before adding, “I believe that they will not be enough.”

Zelensky wasn’t entirely pessimistic, however. He also explained to reporters that he was expecting more F-16s but his comments revealed the reality of a very worrying situation. 

Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, and Belgium have all agreed to collectively provide over 60 airframes before the end of the summer, but sources suggest that this likely wouldn't be possible. 

On July 12th, Bloomberg News reported that the drive to provide Ukraine with F-16 jets had been “bedeviled” by delays, worries about spare plane parts, and language barriers.  

Planners at the time had also begun to worry that Ukraine might not have enough runway space for the number of F-16 it needs, and the runways it did have were very vulnerable to air attacks by Russia. 

The result of the many issues facing Ukraine led Bloomberg to conclude that Kyiv may only be able to field one squadron of F-16s this summer, which is about 15 to 24 fighter jets. 

Bloomberg noted other sources also suggested Ukraine would only be receiving 20 F-16s before the end of summer, a number that is much less than the 300 airframes Ukrainian leaders wanted to help combat Russian airpower.  

How the F-16 will perform against the Russian Air Force once the fighter jets start to square off against what Moscow has to offer in the skies has yet to be seen, but some experts warned weeks ago that they would not change the war.  

“People shouldn’t expect miracles,” stated Jim Townsend, a Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security. Whether this statement is true will likely be revealed soon. 

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