Ukraine has serious troop conscription problems

Ukraine is short on ammunition and outgunned by a far more powerful military force. But those issues are not the most pressing problems facing Volodymyr Zelensky. Kyiv has a manpower problem and it isn’t getting better. 

In December 2023, Zelensky revealed in his year-end press conference that the military proposed a plan to mobilize 450,000 to 500,000 new soldiers. But Zelensky did not put the plan into action for a variety of reasons. 

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"I said I would need more arguments to support this move,” the Ukrainian President said according to Reuters “It's a question of people, secondly, it's a question of fairness, it's a question of defense capability, and it's a question of finances.”

Zelensky’s comments were one of the first public indications that Ukraine was suffering from a major manpower problem, one that hasn’t gotten better over the weeks and is still plaguing the Ukrainian Armed Forces. 

The Washington Post reported Zelensky and his military officials have not come up with a comprehensive plan to conscript or recruit the thousands of soldiers Ukraine needs to continue its fight against Russia’s advances.

Two years into the conflict, Ukraine already has a military force of roughly 1.1 million strong according to Foreign Policy. However, the Washington Post reported only about 300,000 soldiers have fought on the frontlines. 

Ukraine is now entering a dangerous period of the war where its current manpower has become a “strategic crisis,” and may be one of the several issues that contributed to the fall of Avdiivka to the Russians in February. 

“It’s quite possible Russians will move much closer quite soon if there’s nobody to stop them,” Defense ministry official Oleksiy Bezhevets explained. “The lack of ammunition, weapons, shells, and so on, we’ve got a lack of personnel, it’s a tragedy.” 

The Washington Post’s Siobhán O'Grady and Serhii Korolchuk noted that the issue has left “the military relying on a hodgepodge of recruiting efforts” and left the country’s older fighting-age population worried about their future. 

“Soldiers are tired, physically and mentally,” Myroslav Borysenko, a former professor of history at Taras Shevchenko National University and current artillery officer who serves with a marine brigade, explained to Foreign Policy. 

Prior to the Russian invasion, Ukraine required all able-bodied men to serve between 12 and 18 months in the military before they reached the age of 27. However, that system was abandoned once the war began in February 2022. 

Today, all able-bodied Ukrainian men between the ages of 27 to 60 can be called up for service at any time regardless of whether or not they have any military experience. Those 18 or older can also volunteer to join the military. 

The system at present is not working due to the decrease in volunteers but Ukraine has yet to put a new conscription into place that can feed its military the numbers it requires to continue the fight against Russia, and the situation is only getting worse. 

On February 26th, Zelensky signed an executive order that demobilized all conscripted soldiers who reached their service term according to The Kyiv Independent’s review of the new legislation. But that isn’t the most important piece of the executive order. 

The Ukrainian parliament’s National Security and Defense Committee added a provision to the new legislation that will allow former conscripts to postpone another mobilization for 12 months after their demobilization. 

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What will happen next has yet to be seen but any more toward further conscription has become the most challenging problem facing Zelensky and his government ever since the invasion of Ukraine began according to O'Grady and Korolchuk.